Two Tuesday Tennis Hitters on the Clay in Estoril

Two Tuesday Tennis Hitters on the Clay in Estoril article feature image

This week, the ATP Tour will spread out across three 250-level tournaments — all on red clay — in Estoril, Istanbul and Munich. With two clay-Masters 1000s on the horizon (Madrid and Rome), many of the big-named players on tour will sit this week out in preparation for those higher-level tourneys. But, still, tennis will go on — and, thus, tennis will get bet on.

It’s a tricky looking card Tuesday. I had Roberto Carballés Baena -125 circled when the lines opened, but the price on the Spaniard has risen to -160 over the past day or so, sucking out all of the value.

After Cam Norrie’s Davis Cup heroics a few months back on the clay in Spain — he took out Roberto Bautista Agut and pushed Albert Ramos Viñolas to five sets — he looks underpriced at +240 against the at-times fickle Dutchman, Robin Haase.

I also considered Federico Delbonis at plus-money against the aforementioned Ramos, whose form has looked a bit suspect of late, to say the least. However, the same could be said of Delbonis, who has now dropped three straight on clay (his favorite surface). While I think Delbonis gets off the schneid Tuesday, it’s not quite “hitter” material — that match should swing back and forth a few times before it’s all said and done. It looks like a great live-betting match for any tennis traders out there.

While I passed on the above, I did find two hitters in the following matches on Tuesday’s ATP card.

  • Leonardo Mayer (-145) vs. Nicolas Jarry (+125) | 11:30 a.m. ET
  • Pablo Andujar (+130) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (-150) | 11:30 a.m. ET

Let’s take a closer look at both.

YTD: 41-40 +9.18 units

Nicolas Jarry (+125) vs. Leonardo Mayer (-145)

Where: Estoril, Portugal
Surface: Clay
When: Not before 11:30 a.m. ET
Head-to-head: Mayer leads 1-0

So far this season, Jarry boasts an impressive 12-5 record on the dirt at the Tour level. Aside from his most recent showing in Barcelona — where he lost in the first round to Ben Paire — he’s gone deep in every clay tournament he played in this year.

In the first clay event of the season, Jarry made the quarterfinals of Quito. He backed that up in the following two weeks by making the semifinals at Rio and the final at Sao Paulo.

I love what I’ve seen from Jarry so far this season. Given his form, I simply don’t see him getting bounced in back-to-back first rounds. His opponent, Leo Mayer, struggled heavily last week against Karen Khachanov, who plays a similar style of first-serve, first-punch tennis as Jarry.  In that match, Khachanov carved out 14 break chances against Mayer. Jarry should create plenty of opportunities against the Argentine’s serve.

The Chilean sensation may also have a motivational edge, as he looks to avenge a loss to Mayer in their only career meeting at this year’s Australian Open.


At +125, gimme Jarry Styles this time around on his best surface.

THE PICK: Nicolas Jarry +125

Pablo Andujar (+130) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (-150)

Where: Estoril, Portugal
Surface: Clay
When: Not before 11:30 a.m. ET
Head-to-head: First meeting

I like Andujar here, although partially as a fade of Tsitsipas (pictured above), who comes off a long week in Barcelona, where he made his first Tour final as a pro.

The Greek (Tsitsipas) brings a game dependent (especially on clay) on big serving and massive groundies from the baseline — both of which require fresh legs. If the Tsitsi Fly doesn’t bring his A-game or comes to Portugal without a full tank, the resurgent Andujar will certainly make him pay.

Andujar has been extremely impressive since taking almost all of 2017 off with three separate elbow surgeries. The Spaniard, who finally has a clean bill of health, should come in brimming with confidence. Andujar owns a 13-4 record in all competitions since returning in 2018. I watched almost all of his matches a couple of weeks back en route to his title in Marrakech — and, for lack of better phrasing, he played top-drawer clay-court tennis throughout. He smoked a number of decent clay-courters in comprehensive fashion. He dogged Andrea Arnaboldi 6-0, 6-2 and made easy work of Joao “Psycho” Sousa 6-4, 6-4. Then, in the final, he dominated Kyle Edmund 6-2, 6-2 in his pièce de résistance.


Simply too much value to pass up on at +130 on an underrated and confident clay-courter against a young player coming off his best career result — who may also have very heavy legs.

THE PICK: Pablo Andujar +130


Photo via Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports