WTA French Open Betting Previews for Monday: Can Kenin Back Up Her Win Over Serena?
Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sofia Kenin
- French Open WTA betting action continues on Monday with the final four quarterfinal spots on the line.
- We will preview each of the four matches, which will feature three Americans not named Serena Williams.
What a tournament it has been on the women’s side.
We have multiple teenagers making deep runs, upsets galore and a French Open breakthrough by Brit Johanna Konta. It’s still anybody’s tournament.
Let’s take a look at each of the remaining R16 matches to see who will book the final four spots in the quarterfinals, then reveal my betting card for Monday.
Updated French Open Record: 13-8-1 +9.39 units
Katerina Siniakova vs. Madison Keys | Over/Under: 21
Monday, Time TBD
After securing the win of her career, Siniakova will seek her first Grand Slam quarterfinal appearance. She played incredibly clean in that upset win over No. 1 seed Naomi Osaka. The Czech committed only 13 unforced errors, as she primarily just got the ball back in play for Osaka to spray errors.
Siniakova can carry over that strategy against Keys, who will try to blast her off the court.
Keys has had an easy draw to this point but has made a mess of it. After winning the first set in her second- and third-round matches, she became very erratic. She still won both matches, but Siniakova will present a much stiffer test than Priscilla Hon and Anna Blinkova.
In the first ever meeting between these two, I have Keys priced as a -165 favorite, so I don’t see an value on the moneyline.
I believe the play is the over 21 games. Over the past two years, Siniakova is 5-11 vs. top-20 competition (matches that did not end in retirement). Nine of those 16 matches went three sets.
In an expected tight affair, we also might see a tiebreaker (or two). I could also see Keys struggling to close another match out as she continues her streaks of erratic play.
Sonya Kenin vs. Ashleigh Barty -415 | O/U: 20
Monday, Time TBD
Despite winning Hobart to start 2019, this is Kenin’s breakout event.
Defeating Serena Williams is a major accomplishment — especially at a major.
Kenin was much the better player in that match vs. Serena. But can Kenin replicate that performance against an in-form Barty in the midst of her own career year? Probably not.
I can’t stress enough how terrific Kenin played on Saturday. She took balls early, got Serena on the move and routinely hit winners.
However, Barty represents a completely different opponent.
The Aussie will hit plenty of different shots, including multiple slice forehands and backhands, which Kenin did not see with Williams. The 20-year-old American has struggled with Barty in the past, losing both meetings in straight sets. One of those matches came on clay, but of the green variety (completely different conditions) in Charleston.
Kenin has also never experienced this much success on clay. Just look at last year when she went 0-5 on Tour. Suffice to say, I think Barty moves on, but I don’t see much value in the line.
Aliona Bolsova vs. Amanda Anisimova -290 | O/U: 20.5
Monday, Time TBD
Bolsova came through again for us on Saturday, but she will take a big step up in competition against the 17-year-old American.
Despite the superior competition, I still believe Bolsova can win this match and make a shocking Grand Slam quarterfinal.
As big of a fan as I am of Anisimova, I’ve never been fond of her on clay. That opinion has taken a beating in 2019 as the American won her first tournament ever in Bogota and now finds herself in the Round of 16 in Paris. I’m sticking to my original opinion, though: Her movement is not as strong, and the slower courts do not benefit her big hitting game.
Meanwhile, Bolsova was built for the red dirt. She moves very well on the surface, which also suits her wide variety of shots.
Still, this match will ultimately come down to Anisimova. If she’s striking the ball well and hitting winners, she should beat Bolsova (even on clay). She’s the superior talent and stronger player.
Despite her age, Anisimova has more experience playing in the spotlight. She also made the fourth round at the Australian Open while Bolsova had never even made a third round at a Slam prior to this tournament.
That said, the value is on Bolsova as I make Anisimova a much shorter -225 favorite. I have not played Bolsova yet but might add her for a half unit — especially if the price drifts any further.
Check out my Twitter to stay up to date on any additions.
Iga Swiatek vs. Simona Halep -503 | O/U: 19.5
Monday, Time TBD
I had this matchup circled when the draw was released 10 days ago. The best clay court player and defending champ vs. the up-and coming teen making waves. A great storyline.
Unfortunately, Swiatek might not be 100% fit for the match.
Iga Swiatek wasn’t even sure if she would be able to play her match today. Hurt her back in practice yesterday, but fought through it. Now into her 1st Round of 16 at a Slam. #RG19
— WTA Insider (@WTA_insider) June 1, 2019
Against Monica Puig on Saturday, Swiatek called the trainer in the first set where she got bageled. She looked incredibly labored by her lower back. It appeared she would rather be anywhere than playing tennis, but that all changed in the second set when she loosened up.
There’s no sense in trying to handicap the injury. We learn so little from tennis players regarding injuries. She’s 18 years old and has a full day to recover. I’m hoping she’s near 100% — which she looked over the final two sets on Saturday, hitting 31 winners to 20 unforced errors.
That type of ratio has become the norm for Swiatek. It will be difficult to sustain those numbers against a less aggressive Halep, though.
Halep made easy work of an unfit and wild Lesia Tsurenko on Saturday. There’s nothing to glean from that match-up.
Swiatek will need her peak power and drop shot ability to win points against such an elite defender, but I believe the Pole has it in her. Halep will get back many more balls than Puig, but Iga will still have ample opportunities to hit winners. It will just take an extra shot or two.
Halep’s first serve has been solid as of late, so Swiatek will have to take full advantage of the Romanian’s second serve. The easiest way to beat Halep is to dominate her second serve by winning at least 60% of those points. Just look at the 13 matches this year when Halep won fewer than 40% of her second serve points. She went just 7-6.
This line has gone through some wild swings. Swiatek opened at +380, dropped as far as +330 and then ballooned back up to +415. I personally have Swiatek priced at +245. Obviously, I would prefer no injury concern, but that probably caused the line to inflate a bit. I’ll still roll with the Pole.
Monday WTA French Open Betting Card
- Katerina Siniakova/Madison Keys Over 21-110
- Iga Swiatek +408