Tuesday ATP Grass Betting Preview: Andy Murray Returns in London
Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andy Murray
- We have two grass tournaments on Tour this week in Halle and London.
- Andy Murray (+238) makes his long-awaited return to Tour against Nick Kyrgios.
- Our best bet of the day comes at Queen’s Club, where defending champ, Feli Lopez (+135), takes on David Goffin.
We’ve got two star-studded tournaments to handicap on the grass courts this week — one in Germany and the other in England.
Over in Halle, the likes of local favorites Sascha Zverev (-278 against Borna Coric) and Philipp Kohlschreiber (-180 vs. Marton Fucsovics) are in action. And at the new “Fever-Tree” sponsored Queen’s Club, all eyes will be on the return of Andy Murray in London.
Unfortunately for Muzzard, he didn’t get an easy draw in his return to Tour, as he will take on Nick Kyrgios — fresh off a decent week in Stuttgart. The talented Aussie comes in on form, pushing the newly-crowned World No. 1, Roger Federer, to a third set breaker in the semis.
I found the video below of Murray practicing in London this week on Youtube, and — you can look for yourself — but it ain’t pretty. Given his limited movement, I can’t see Murray surviving more than 3-4 shots per rally. Murray, himself, even admitted he’s not fully fit yet. If true, the -288 price tag on Kyrgios looks like a bargain.
Kyrgios should win comprehensively — but, given his friendship with Andy, I wouldn’t put it past the “easy-going” Kyrgios to keep it interesting. If you’re searching for a moneyline parlay piece, Nick looks like a fit.
Elsewhere on the card, I had a few things of interest circled. Firstly, I think Karen Khachanov now holds value against Mischa Zverev in Halle. Hach opened around -125, but the elder Zverev has apparently taken on a ton of money — and you can now find Hach at +120.
I understand Zverev plays his best ball on the grass — and, sure, he looked alright last week against Federer (in his first match back from layoff) — but I think layers are being a touch generous here. Mischa is still just 10-17 this season at the Tour level. And, lest we forget, Khachanov washed Zverev earlier this year 6-2, 6-1, at Marseille. Unless Zverev serves super efficiently and brings his A-game, I expect Khachanov to have a solid chance.
I also like the looks of Adrian Mannarino (-112) over in London against Dan Evans. Evans (+100) has been balling on the grass, but I expect conditioning to loom large — with the Brit making the Surbiton semifinals and the Nottingham final over the past two weeks. Mannarino can be a tough assignment on the grass — especially if you have heavy legs.
Let’s now get into the daily hitter for Tuesday.
Feli Lopez (+135) vs. David Goffin (-155)
When: Not before 10:30 a.m. ET
Where: London, UK
H2H: Goffin leads 3-0 (never met on grass)
I can’t pass up the opportunity to back Feli Lopez, the defending champ here, at plus-money (+135) against David Goffin.
In Goffin’s limited grass career, the Belgian is just 14-14 — with very mediocre hold statistics (just 83%). Meanwhile, Lopez has a much bigger body of work on grass — where he always plays his best tennis. The Spaniard owns an impressive 74-39 career record on grass at the main level, holding serve 89.2% of the time.
Last year, Feli defeated Stan Wawrinka, Jeremy Chardy, Tomas Berdych, Grigor Dimitrov and Marin Cilic en route to the title. He clearly fancies the conditions here.
Lopez hit 35 aces through three matches last week in Stuttgart (including a match where Troicki retired after a set) and seems primed for another deep run at a tourney he has excelled at. Sure, Goffin has never lost a set to Feli in his career — but they’ve also never played on grass.
And, as we’ve learned in the past, “grass court Feli” proves to be an entirely different beast. The Spaniard plays a very confident brand of tennis on this surface — and, against a player like Goffin who likes to grind people down from the baseline, Lopez should play this one on his terms.
Not only did Goffin look unimpressive on his best surface at the French Open (pushed to five sets by Robin Haase and Gael Monfils before losing in four against Marco Cecchinato) — he also hasn’t played a grass match in two years. In contrast, Feli looked great last week — even in his loss to Kyrgios. I think this presents a good spot to back the defending champ at odds-against. Gotta go with “consistency + form,” here.
The Pick: Feli Lopez (+135)