WTA Wimbledon Tuesday Betting Preview: 7 First-Round Matches That Hold Value

Credit:

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Belinda Bencic

  • Betting action will roll along at Wimbledon on Tuesday with 32 scheduled women's matches.
  • Brett Farrenkopf takes a closer look at seven matches that hold value and details his betting strategy for day two in London.

After combing through all 32 women’s Wimbledon matches on Tuesday, I’ve found value in seven matches. I ended up betting one favorite, four underdogs and a moneyline parlay.

Let’s take a closer look at each match; I will also summarize all six picks at the end.

Anna Kalinskaya (-113) vs Magda Linette (-107)

My line: Kalinskaya -145

This is expected to be one of the tighter first-round matches.

Both players have some decent grass court results this year. Linette won the Manchester ITF event in early June — including an upset over Zarina Diyas as a +155 underdog in the final. Meanwhile, Kalinskaya owns an impressive 9-4 grass record in 2019, which includes a Wimbledon qualifying run without dropping a set It was against lower-level competition, but Linette plays at a similar level.

Kalinskaya is a 20-year-old Russian who has just started to play more frequently at Tour level events. This will mark her first main draw at Wimbledon but her qualifying experience should serve her well. Plus, Linette has also never won a main draw match in London.

Neither player hits big or plays an aggressive style, so expect plenty of long rallies even on the quick grass surface. That’s where I give the edge to Kalinskaya, who moves better than Linette.

I see significant value in backing the Russian to secure her first Grand Slam victory.

My Bet: Kalinskaya -113


Tereza Martincova (+118) vs Yafan Wang (-138)

My line: Martincova +100

Another matchup of two players who have never won a main draw match at Wimbledon. Neither of these two have noteworthy grass results in their young careers, but neither has been a disaster on the surface either.

Wang is 2-2 in 2019 on grass with decent wins over Alison Van Uytanck and Anna-Lena Friedsam. And Martincova is 5-2 — but three of those wins came in qualifying where she notably came back to beat Anna Blinkova in three tough sets as a +165 underdog.

Martincova’s best grass performance this year came in a loss to Amanda Anisimova — who edged out a tough three-set victory: 3-6 7-6(6), 7-5. Martincova was the better player for a majority of the match and probably deserved the win.

Wang is not as good as Anisimova, especially on grass. She has a game much more comparable to Blinkova.

If Wang is on her game, she could overpower the Czech. But Martincova did handle Anisimova’s easy power which is a good sign for this match. I have to side with Martincova in a match I essentially make a coin flip.

My Bet: Martincova +118


Katie Swan (-109) vs Laura Siegemund (-111)

My line: Swan -130

This is almost purely a fade of Siegemund — who has only won five grass matches in her 17-year pro career. Her sole main draw victory on grass came back in 2016.

The German also didn’t play any grass tourneys leading to Wimbledon, as. I suspect the clay court specialist is more concerned with preparing for the few European clay court events on the horizon.

Swan is nothing special on tour, but she’s at least played in a few warmup events. She went just 1-2 on grass (one event got moved to an indoor court) but two of the losses were tight three-setters against players with better grass pedigree than Siegemund.

Swan is only in the draw because she received a wild card for being a Brit. That was also the case last year when she went on to defeat Irina Begu in the first-round. She can repeat that result this year by taking advantage of an underprepared Siegemund.

My Bet: Swan -109


Beatriz Haddad Maia (+208) vs Garbine Muguruza (-248)

My line: Haddad Maia +180

I’m not sure what we will get from Muguruza.

Generally speaking, the best time to fade Muguruza is early on in majors. The two-time Grand Slam champ has lost in the first or second round 12 times in her career.

Also, for the first time in the 25-year-old Spaniard’s career, she did not compete in any warm-up events prior to Wimbledon.

Haddad Maia has never posted great results at Wimbledon, but she has shown competency on grass in the past. She won her first-round match here last year and did beat grass-specialist Rybarikova in straight sets at an ITF event two weeks ago.

Maia is an average player that can hit winners on grass, but this is also a fade of Muguruza early in a major after preparing differently for Wimbledon than she ever has in the past. Muguruza is an enigma and could certainly make a deep run here — but I think she’s worth taking on in this spot at this price.

My Bet: Haddad Maia +208


Elena Gabriela Ruse (+295) vs Julia Goerges (-355)

My line: Ruse +215

Goerges has really struggled in 2019 after winning Auckland to start the year. She didn’t win more than two matches in a tournament until two weeks ago when she lost to Ashleigh Barty in the Birmingham final.

Perhaps a return to grass has sparked Goerges’ game — and more specifically her serve.

The German has one of the best serves on Tour, but it has abandoned her for much of the year. Prior to her run in Birmingham, Goerges was only making 53% of her first serves with a 7.6% ace rate.

She increased those numbers to 62% and 10.5% in Birmingham, respectively. It doesn’t seem like a massive hike but those small margins are important in three set matches.

Photo Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Julia Goerges

Ruse is a more than a competent grass court player. She went 5-0* this year on grass and 6-3 in 2018. Last year at Wimbledon, she almost pulled off a major upset as a +600 underdog against the now retired Agnieszka Radwanska (6-3, 4-6, 7-5). If she can repeat that performance, Goerges is in for a sweat.

Ruse is an underrated player on grass and has the talent to upset Goerges, especially if the German’s serving level in Birmingham was more of an aberration. Too much value to pass up on here.

My Bet: Ruse +295

*Indoor matches at Nottingham not included


Ekaterina Alexandrova (-145) vs Katerina Siniakova (+125)

My line: Alexandrova -165

Alexandrova has come into her own in 2019 and has appreciated the move from clay to grass — where her hard-hitting and flat ground strokes are more effective.

She had a number of impressive victories on grass pre-Wimbledon over the likes of Belinda Bencic, Elise Mertens, Ajla Tomljanovic and Jelena Ostapenko. Despite having won only one match at Wimbledon (as a +550 underdog against Ana Ivanovic in 2016), I like her game on the quick grass surface.

Siniakova has made the third-round twice at Wimbledon and her go for broke, low-margin game can lead to hot runs on any surface. However, her form leading up to this year’s edition is worrisome.

After a fourth-round run in Paris, Siniakova went 0-2 against two inferior opponents in her only two grass events. In fairness, she’s never performed particularly well in those events, so perhaps it speaks to a lack of focus and/or prep — but her form is still off.

My Bet: Alexandrova in a ML parlay


Belinda Bencic (-465) vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (+390)

My line: Bencic -550

I’m using Bencic in a moneyline parlay with Alexandrova.

Bencic is primed for Wimbledon and performed exceptionally well in grass court lead ups. She did suffer a disappointing loss to Sonya Kenin in the Mallorca final was semi-disappointing, but she beat Angelique Kerber en route to the title.

As much as I like Bencic, Pavlyuchenkova is in a fade spot as well. This is the third time she has not played any grass tournaments leading up to Wimbledon. And in both prior instances, she lost her first-round match here 6-0, 6-1.

Bencic is the superior talent (especially on grass) and has no fitness issues.

My Bet: Bencic in a ML parlay


Tuesday First-Round Wimbledon Bets

  • Alexandrova/Bencic ML Parlay +105
  • Haddad Maia +208
  • Martincova +118
  • Kalinskaya -113
  • Ruse +295
  • Swan -109
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