A Profitable Betting System for Tonight’s Aces-Mystics Matchup

Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals is tonight at 9 p.m. ET. The Golden State Warriors hold a 2-1 series lead after winning Game 3 by 41 points (126-85). Rockets-Warriors will be the biggest game on the board, though it’s not the basketball matchup that caught my eye.

The Warriors Are Dominant ATS in the Playoffs as Large Favorites

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Using Bet Labs, I found a WNBA betting system that has covered over 60.0% against the spread (ATS) since 2005 with a match for tonight's Las Vegas Aces-Washington Mystics game (7 p.m. ET).

Washington opened as a 17-point favorite. Why are the Mystics such prohibitive favorites? Washington reached the WNBA semifinals last season, which is the equivalent of the conference finals in the NBA Playoffs, while Las Vegas finished with the worst record in the league. The Aces also got blasted by 36 points in their first game and are not at full strength. Kayla McBride and Kelsey Plum, the team’s starting backcourt, are in Turkey for the KBSL Finals.

The Mystics are expected to win easily, but that doesn't mean they'll cover. Big underdogs are undervalued in the WNBA. Since 2005, double-digit dogs are 180-140-11 (56.3%) ATS. Most of these teams are on the road and the system improves if the team did not reach the postseason the year before:

Since 2005, road teams getting 10 or more points that missed the playoffs are 105-67-7 (61.0%) ATS. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,316 following this system.

Big underdog, road team, didn’t make the playoffs. Check, check, check, for the Aces. As a bonus, this system is the most profitable early in the season when lines are influenced the most by the previous season’s results. In May and June, this system has gone 51-20-3 (71.8%) ATS since 2005.

The betting market is undervaluing the Aces, which has created an opportunity for contrarian gamblers.