A Profitable WNBA System with Two Weekend Matches
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Las Vegas Aces center A’ja Wilson
What’s on tap this weekend? Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final is Saturday, the NBA Finals resume on Sunday, there are 45 MLB games, not to mention the French Open, WNBA, the Memorial Tournament (eight of the world’s top 10 golfers are in action) and the Pocono 400.
Am I going to bet the board?
That was a silly question. Here are a few plays I’ve already made: Golden Knights (+107), Warriors (-12) and Friday’s Royals-Athletics over (9.5) — follow all my picks with the Action app. I also have my eye on the nine-game WNBA slate.
Using Bet Labs, I found a WNBA betting system that has covered nearly 60.0% against the spread (ATS) since 2005 with matches for Washington Mystics-Las Vegas Aces (Friday 10:30 p.m. ET) and New York Liberty-Indiana Fever (Saturday 7 p.m. ET).
One way to find value in the WNBA is by betting teams with a worse ATS record than their opponents. The idea being teams that consistently cover will have inflated lines. Since 2005, squads with ATS win percentage differences of 10% or worse than opponents are 775-737-30 (51.3%) ATS.
This system quickly improves if the side we bet failed to make the playoffs the season before: 300-254-10 (54.2%) ATS.
Another contrarian angle when betting women’s basketball is to fade the previous season’s playoff participants. In this scenario our system profitability improves once again:
The final filter bumps our system record up to 158-114-4 (58.1%) ATS. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,687 following this system.
Saturdays Are For the Girls
Already sold on this betting strategy? Great, but for those still skeptical, here is why this system will continue to be profitable. It has a large sample (more than 275 games), consistent results (only one losing ATS record in the last 14 seasons) and a contrarian take (fading playoff teams with better ATS records).
At the time of publication there are no lines available. Check out our app for updates.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics (Friday 10:30 p.m. ET)
The Aces (+11.5) lost 101-74 on Thursday to the Storm. Hopefully Vegas is another double-digit dog. Teams that match this system getting 10 or more points have gone 49-21-1 (70.0%) ATS since 2005.
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty (Saturday 7 p.m. ET)
Indiana (0-5) has the worst record in the WNBA. Teams that have won 30% or fewer of their games have gone 68-41 (62.4%) ATS when matching this system, and squads that have not won a game are 20-9 (69.0%) ATS.