Koerner: Use My Projected WNBA Betting Odds to Find Best Friday Lines

Jun 20, 2019 05:30 PM EDT
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Photo credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jewell Loyd

  • Sean Koerner uses his power ratings to project WNBA betting odds for Friday's matchups.
  • See his projected spreads and totals for Dream-Sun (7:30 p.m. ET), Fever-Sky (8 p.m. ET) and Sparks-Storm (10:30 p.m. ET).

We have three WNBA matchups on the docket for Friday night.

Let’s dive right into my projected odds for Dream vs. Sun, Fever vs. Sky and Sparks vs. Storm, and what lines I’ll be looking to bet.


Find more on my WNBA Power Ratings and how I use them to project betting odds here.


Atlanta Dream (2-5) at Connecticut Sun (8-1)

Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET

I mentioned in the Dream’s last matchup that they are much better than their record indicates and could present some potential value over their next few games. The Fever announced their key player, Natalie Achonwa, was ruled out shortly before lock and the line didn’t even move. I was able to load up on the Dream at +1 when I had them being closer to -3.5 in my power ratings. Sure enough, they ended up beating the Fever by double digits. It’s just a reminder that WNBA typically offers a ton of value because the market is inefficient.

On the other side of the ball, we have a Sun team that is dominating the league right now with a league-best 8-1 record. They are actually my No. 2 team in my current power ratings, so there could be some potential value betting against them in the near future.

This matchup should have the Sun favored right around -12. I’m expecting the actual line to open around there and likely stay in that range. Only if it falls outside of -10.5 to -13.5 would I begin to consider making a bet here.

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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