Koerner: Use My Projected WNBA Betting Odds to Find Best Friday Lines
Photo credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jewell Loyd
- Sean Koerner uses his power ratings to project WNBA betting odds for Friday's matchups.
- See his projected spreads and totals for Dream-Sun (7:30 p.m. ET), Fever-Sky (8 p.m. ET) and Sparks-Storm (10:30 p.m. ET).
We have three WNBA matchups on the docket for Friday night.
Let’s dive right into my projected odds for Dream vs. Sun, Fever vs. Sky and Sparks vs. Storm, and what lines I’ll be looking to bet.
Atlanta Dream (2-5) at Connecticut Sun (8-1)
Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
I mentioned in the Dream’s last matchup that they are much better than their record indicates and could present some potential value over their next few games. The Fever announced their key player, Natalie Achonwa, was ruled out shortly before lock and the line didn’t even move. I was able to load up on the Dream at +1 when I had them being closer to -3.5 in my power ratings. Sure enough, they ended up beating the Fever by double digits. It’s just a reminder that WNBA typically offers a ton of value because the market is inefficient.
On the other side of the ball, we have a Sun team that is dominating the league right now with a league-best 8-1 record. They are actually my No. 2 team in my current power ratings, so there could be some potential value betting against them in the near future.
This matchup should have the Sun favored right around -12. I’m expecting the actual line to open around there and likely stay in that range. Only if it falls outside of -10.5 to -13.5 would I begin to consider making a bet here.
For the total, I have it at 154.5 and feel pretty confident about that number, as both teams have been pretty steady in terms of predictiveness. Both teams are right around the middle of the pack in pace. The last time they met, the total was 160 but ended up falling well short, with only 124 points being scored.
I think books will have that in mind when setting the opening number and could actually open it a bit low in the 150-152 range, which would see some early sharp money push the total up a bit closer to where I have it.
Projected Spread: Sun -12
Projected Total: 154.5
Indiana Fever (4-5) at Chicago Sky (5-2)
Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
As mentioned above, Natalie Achonwa missed last game with a calf injury and is questionable for this matchup. She is having a career year and is arguably their most valuable player right now. I’m making her worth 1 point against the spread for this matchup.
The Sky are on fire right now with four straight wins heading into this matchup. These two teams just played less than a week ago when the Sky upset the Fever 70-64 on the road as +3.5 underdogs.
I’m setting the opening line at Sky -4.5 with Achonwa questionable, and here’s where I’d place it if we get word she’s playing, out or if there’s no news:
- Achonwa In: Sky -4
- Achonwa ?: Sky -4.5
- Achonwa Out: Sky -5
The total I have for this matchup is 163.5. When these two teams played last Saturday, the total was 166 and the under hit easily with only 134 total points scored. I would be shocked if the line didn’t open closer to 163.5.
As always, the lines in the WNBA can move quite a bit throughout the day, so it’ll be key to monitor if this moves far enough from 163.5 to warrant a bet.
Projected Spread: See above
Projected Total: 163.5
Los Angeles Sparks (4-4) at Seattle Storm (5-4)
Tipoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
The season debut for Candace Parker did not go as planned, as the Sparks were blown out 81-52 at home against the Mystics. Parker was partly to blame, as she went 1-of-9 from the field. Some rust was to be expected, but it was encouraging to see her play 25 minutes in her first game back. She will only improve going forward, so the Sparks are worth betting on trending up in the near future.
The Storm have been surprising this year, as they’ve been able to put up a winning record without two of their best players in Breanna Stewart and Sue Bird to start their season.
I have the Sparks as a 1-point road favorite here and think the market could end up making them +2 dogs; I will pounce on them if that’s the case.
It’s worth noting they have had the league’s toughest schedule to date, have suffered back-to-back brutal losses and have Candace Parker back. Coupled with Seattle playing over its head a bit, I’m anticipating I’ll be taking the Sparks here, but we need to wait and see what line we can get.
The total I have set for this matchup is 154, and I have every reason to believe the market will be very close on this one.
Projected Spread: Sparks -1
Projected Total: 154