Koerner: Use My Projected WNBA Betting Odds to Find Best Sky-Liberty Line on Wednesday

Credit:

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Allie Quigley

Jun 19, 2019, 01:30 PM EDT
  • Sean Koerner uses his power ratings to project WNBA betting odds for Wednesday's Sky-Liberty matchup.

Editor’s note: The Fever-Dream matchup was moved to the bottom of this story after tip.

We have two WNBA matchups on the docket for Wednesday, including a day game.

Let’s dive right into my projected odds for the Indiana Fever at Atlanta Dream and Chicago Sky at New York Liberty, and what lines I’ll be looking to bet.


Find more on my WNBA Power Ratings and how I use them to project betting odds here.


Chicago Sky (4-2) at New York Liberty (3-5)

  • Time: 7 p.m. ET

This is another matchup between two teams in the bottom half of the league that are nearly identical in my power ratings.

The Liberty have faced the league’s toughest schedule to date. They’ve been an absolute roller coaster of late with two upset wins over the Aces and Sparks as double-digit underdogs, with a 100-65 blowout loss to the Aces in-between.

One of the reasons the Liberty have been inconsistent so far is due to the slow start by their superstar Tina Charles. She has hovered right around her career FG% of 45.5%, but has only shot 37.7% from the floor in the team’s first eight games. Expect her to bounce back soon — another reason why we should find value on the Liberty the short term.

I have the Liberty being a 1-point favorite here. With the Sky in the middle of a three-game win streak, I’m guessing they end up being the slight favorites. If for some reason the public pushes them past a 2-point road favorite, I will gladly come in on the Liberty once it appears the line has peaked.

The total I have set for this matchup is 164. Both teams have been trending to the under as seen by it going 7-3 over the past five games combined for both teams. However, the Liberty are fresh off the highest scoring game of the season (190 total points scored), so books will have to be a bit cautious trying to balance some recency bias.

It’s hard to gauge where they’ll open this total, so it’s possible it falls outside of the 161.5 to 166.5 range that might trigger a bet from me.

Projected Spread: Liberty -1
Projected Total: 164


Indiana Fever (4-4) at Atlanta Dream (1-5)

  • Time: 11 a.m. ET

The Dream are off to a terrible start as they await for key player Angel McCoughtry to return from a knee injury.

They’re much better than their record indicates, which makes them a team we’ll likely find value on in the meantime. Not to mention, they’re fresh off a 10-point loss to Dallas, which is by far the worst team in my current power ratings.

I’m guessing bookmakers will anticipate heavy action on the Fever here.

The Fever have benefited from, by far, the easiest schedule in the league. I have the Dream being a 1.5-point favorite in this matchup, but I’m thinking all the factors above might be shifting public perception too far in the Fever’s favor and they might actually open as a slight road favorite.

I’m looking to take the Dream here if they’re getting +1.5 or more.

For the total, I have it set at 153.5. This game should be about average in pace, but below average in offensive efficiency with two weaker teams. Both have been trending to the under. In fact, the last two games played by the Dream have been the two lowest scoring games of the season so far.

I’m guessing books will be anticipating some under action if they set it anything north of 155.5, so I’m guessing it will end up in the 153-155 range.

Projected Spread: Dream -1.5
Projected Total: 153.5

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@The_Oddsmaker

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