Action Pro System: Sparks vs. Wings Offering Big Historical Edge

Action Pro System: Sparks vs. Wings Offering Big Historical Edge article feature image
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Dallas Wings Instagram. Pictured: Dallas Wings guard Arike Ogunbowale

  • The Los Angeles Sparks will take on the Dallas Wings on Wednesday night (8 p.m. ET).
  • Using Bet Labs, we offer a betting system with a 60% against-the-spread win rate that fits this matchup.

The Wings have won seven games — the second fewest in the WNBA this season — and have scored the fewest points per game (69.8) in the league. You don’t need to be a WNBA expert to see that Dallas is a bad team.

But Brian Agler’s squad hasn’t given up on the season. In its most recent game on Saturday, the Wings opened as 10-point underdogs against the Mercury and upset Phoenix on the road.

When a bad team wins a game, conventional wisdom says you should bet against it the next game. Why? Because it’s bad for a reason and bound to regress.

However, teams in this spot are incredibly profitable. Oddsmakers anticipate the public fading bad teams after a victory and will inflate the lines for their opponents, which creates value betting the bad team.

Since 2005, WNBA teams with a win percentage of 30% or less coming off a win, like the Wings, have covered their next game 60% of the time according to Bet Labs.

A $100 bettor following this simple strategy would have returned a profit of $3,487.

Oddsmakers opened Dallas as a 6-point underdog at home vs. the Los Angeles Sparks on Wednesday (8 p.m. ET). Casual bettors will be tempted to fade the Wings, but history is on Dallas’ side to cover.

Plus, the Wings have been competitive in most of their games this season. Eight of the team’s 17 losses have come by six or fewer points. Dallas is a respectable 12-12 against the spread (ATS) in 2019, including 7-5 ATS at home and 7-3 ATS as a home dog.