Fatigue Creating Betting Value for Thursday’s Fever-Dream WNBA Matchup

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Athletes need to manage their rest in order to compete at a high level. This is something I found out the hard way last week after running a mile on three consecutive days. Whether we’re playing in 40-minute WNBA games or running 40-minute miles on consecutive days, one thing is clear: when we overextend ourselves physically, our performance can suffer.

 

Rest will be a major theme during the 2018 WNBA season for one key reason. This fall, the FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup will be held from Sept. 22-Sept. 30, interfering with the WNBA schedule. Last season, the WNBA playoffs did not even begin until Sept 29. Since the WNBA did not want to interfere with FIBA’s schedule — as many of its players will be competing in the tournament — we are left with a very condensed regular-season schedule.

“The first thing I noticed when I saw the 2018 WNBA schedule is how condensed it was because of the World Championship in September,” Connecticut Sun head coach Curt Miller said. “Along with that, the amount of time we have to prepare and practice both before and during the season is considerably shorter.”

The condensed schedule has led to more “biorhythm” games, featuring teams playing back-to-back sets, three-games-in-five-day sets, etc. From a betting perspective, this is interesting.

One such biorhythm game features the league-worst Indiana Fever visiting Atlanta to take on the Dream on Thursday (11:30 a.m. ET), and here’s how bettors can take advantage:

Both the Dream and Fever will be playing their fourth game in seven days. Although Wednesday was an off-day for both teams, both had to travel in order to meet in Atlanta.

The game matches an Under system that is 87-64-3 (57.6%) against the spread (ATS) for a 12.2% return on investment (ROI) over a sample of 154 games.

Here’s the system’s criteria:

  • Both teams have played between three and five games over the last seven days.
  • The home team’s game number is between four and 20.

Although the above system is intriguing on its own, the story doesn’t end there. Consider these other factors that may come into play:

  • Thursday’s matchup features an early tip at 11:30 a.m. ET – not great for two tired teams
  • The Fever and Dream are two of the three worst shooting teams in the league, with effective field goal percentages of 45% and 42%, respectively.

All things considered, this sets up to be a very sloppy game, which could be a good thing for bettors taking the under on the game’s 153 total.

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