I like Keselowski, but I think things should be more even between him and Busch. Busch has had race-winning upside in this rules package and was good in practice yesterday. I'm not actively looking to fade Keselowski; I just think the market is a bit too low on Busch. I also have value on Busch to win down to +2000 -- just prefer this market for him.

Available at FanDuel. Bubba has shortened elsewhere, but he's still a big value here. I have Wallace at 21.0% to win The Open, up from 13.3% implied. Even with lots of uncertainty this weekend, I adore Wallace at this number.

I've also got value on Hamlin at place like FanDuel where he's +500. Hamlin excels on short, flat tracks, and if the new tire combo forces drivers to manage their equipment, he showed at Bristol he can do that, too. With all the uncertainty, this should be more of a "just for fun" bet, but I really like Hamlin this weekend.