Sobel’s Players Championship Preview: Fade the Favorites at Sawgrass

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. — I could spout all sorts of analytical research to support my theory that The Players Championship is the toughest event in golf to handicap. I could remind you that it features the strongest annual field, but remains wide open to potential contenders of every type.

Or I could just say this: It’s a tournament that’s been won by such polar opposites as Phil Mickelson and Fred Funk. Also: Tiger Woods and Craig Perks. And: Adam Scott and Tim Clark.

If you’re seeking a prototypical Players player who fits the mold of past champions, the answer is yes.

A long-hitter who can overpower TPC-Sawgrass? Jason Day did it. An accurate guy who rarely misses a fairway? There’s Henrik Stenson. A ball-striker who feathers approach shots into some tucked pins? Sounds like Rickie Fowler? A torrid putter who can’t miss the hole? That was Webb Simpson.

All of which simultaneously makes this week’s tournament at PGA Tour HQ both a fun watch and near-impossible to predict.

Throw in another variable this year, with the tourney moving back to March for the first time in 13 years, and it stands to be amongst the most incalculable events we’ll see all year.

(Note: I’ll have more Wednesday on what the move to March means from the players’ perspectives, but don’t be surprised to hear most of ‘em insist that it offers an advantage to the longer hitters.)

Because of the limitless potential so deep in the field, I’ve got a little slogan for the week: Fade the Favorites. I’m staying away from the top names on the board.

This strategy doesn’t always work, of course. Of those names I mentioned above, there are Hall of Famers and top-10ers and players ranked amongst the world’s elite.

Could co-favorites Dustin Johnson or Rory McIlroy finally win a first Players title? Absolutely. How about Justin Thomas or Justin Rose? No doubt.

The truth is, of those top-10 names, I might ride-or-die with Arnold Palmer Invitational champion Francesco Molinari, if anyone, just because he showed a propensity last summer to step on the gas pedal when he’s running hot.

That’s tempting, but his victory launched him into “favorite” territory and I’m not getting sucked in.

Instead, I’m looking for players who are at least inside the top-half in driving distance, own strong long-term ball-striking numbers and have some solid history on this course.

By the same measure, I’m hardly looking at any underdogs to pop up out of nowhere and steal this title. It’s been a while since Perks pulled that off and with this field strength, it’s tough to believe we’ll see that type of recurrence anytime soon at the, ahem, first minor.

(Quick rant before we move on: I’ve been covering this event for 15 years and somehow we’re still spinning our wheels with the same is-it-or-isn’t-it? fifth major major narrative. It’s a lazy discussion. There are four majors. This isn’t one of ‘em. There’s nothing wrong with being the “best of the rest,” which is exactly what this is. Let’s not keep trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.)

With that, let’s get right to the picks, skipping over the usual “Favorites” section and going straight to the “Mid-Tier.”

Mid-Tier

Xander Schauffele (+2500)

He’s a strong ball-striker and has fared well on TPC Sawgrass before, but my favorite thing about X-man in this event is that he’s a big-game hunter. He tends to play his best golf in the strongest fields – and there’s none stronger than this one, which means he can do his usual fly-under-the-radar thing for four days and still win the title.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2800)

Successfully continued his trend of one blow-up round per tourney at the API last week – he legitimately could have three wins there without the outliers – but I’m going to focus on the three solid ones. A tremendous ball-striker, this one should be right up his alley.

Sergio Garcia (+3300)

Notice the pattern yet? I’m loading up on guys who flush it. As Tiger said during his pre-tournament press conference, “It's a very simple formula here: Hit it good.” Garcia is another guy who frequently does that.

Patrick Cantlay (+4000)

Perhaps my favorite play on the board this week. Cantlay has finished 21^st or better in eight of nine starts, dating back to last year’s Tour Championship. The consistency is apparent; it’s about time he jumped into the next echelon with a win.

Henrik Stenson (+5000)

I’m still not completely sold here. He doesn’t have a top-10 since last year’s U.S. Open, doesn’t have a full-time caddie and not that long ago there were whispers that the 42-year-old might be taking a quick turn into Darren Clarke/Lee Westwood territory late in his career. He sucked me back in with a T-17 last week at Bay Hill and he’s a past champion here, but I’d still tread carefully for now.

Marc Leishman (+5000)

Another guy who I’m listing, but not without a warning label. I always thought this event was perfect for Leishman in May, when the course was running firm and fast, but other than a nice little stretch from 2013-15, he never made much noise. I can’t imagine a slower, soggier course will play into his hands, but he’s still good enough to contend here despite that.

Rafa Cabrera Bello (+5500)

An increasingly popular pick this week, RCB owns that confluence of form and history that we so often seek. He’s finished 3-19-25-22 in his last four starts and 17-4 in his last two Players appearances, so all the stars could be aligned this week.

Longshots

Billy Horschel (+8000)

A local resident who might see this course as much as anyone in the field, Horschel has enjoyed a nice season to date and fits the ball-striking profile we’re looking for. At this price, he can provide some solid value as a top-five or top-10 selection.

Kevin Kisner (+9000)

How about this consistency: In his last four starts, Kisner has finished between 23rd and 28th each time. While he might struggle to replicate his playoff loss of four years ago here, a similar result to those recent ones could make him a viable DFS option if you’re trying to squeeze in some top players.

Byeong Hun An (+10000)

Quite simply, he’s a much better player than he gets credit for. An has already won the flagship event on the European Tour, so it wouldn’t be such a reach to see him win this one. He’s only missed one cut worldwide in the past nine months and owns a half-dozen top-10 finishes over that time, including a T-10 last week at Bay Hill. More on him below.

Charl Schwartzel (+12500)

As of a few weeks ago, he was our version of a punching bag; we were seeking out matchups against the former Masters champ, just to fade him. Since then, though, something has clicked, as he finished T-6 in Puerto Rico and T-16 at the Honda Classic. I’m not sure he’s ready to match last year’s T-2 at The Players, but he’s no longer a guy we need to aggressively fade, either.

My Favorite Bet

Top Asian Player: Byeong Hun An (+600)

If you think about it, it’s a little strange that books offer odds based solely on a player’s homeland. I mean, there’s never an NFL prop which asks: “Which QB born in California will throw for the most passing yards this week?”

That said, if they’re gonna offer it, we should take advantage of it.

I really like An as a 6-to-1 bet in this area.

Despite picking him for the last six months or so, I’m officially jumping off the Hideki Matsuyama (+260) train – for this week, at least. His putting is giving me hives. Si Woo Kim (+500) is a model of inconsistency; if you can figure out where he’ll finish on a given week, you might as well be playing the lottery. Sungjae Im (+600) owns a world of talent, but I’m not sold on him in his first Players start. Haotong Li (+750), Kiradech Aphibarnrat (+900), Sung Kang (+1000) and C.T. Pan (+1600) each own some value, but none excite me too much.

And so we’re left with An, whose recent success I wrote about above.

An ranks 23rd this season in strokes gained off the tee, 48th in strokes gained on approach shots and first in strokes gained around the greens. I like that combination for a top-10 result this week – and a winning bet in this category.