UFC 235 Betting Guide: Will Tyron Woodley Retain his Title Against Kamaru Usman?

UFC 235 betting odds: Tyron Woodley vs. Kamaru Usman

• Tyron Woodley -190
• Kamaru Usman +160
• Time: Approx. 11:30 p.m. ET
• Channel: Pay-per-view

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Saturday’s UFC 235 card is the promotion’s first great Pay-Per View offering of 2019. In addition to the main event between Jon “Bones” Jones and Anthony “Lionheart” Smith, the event is anchored by Tyron Woodley’s UFC Welterweight Championship defense against Kamaru Usman.

After a series of listless title defenses, FWoodley (19-3-1) finally added to his highlight real with a dominant submission victory over Darren Till last September at UFC 228. Woodley is 6-0-1 in his past seven and has not lost since he dropped a decision to Rory MacDonald in June 2014. The incumbent welterweight champion has three stoppages and three decision victories in that run.

Entering mixed martial arts with a decorated collegiate wrestling background, Usman (14-1) is the winner of thirteen straight fights. Usman is the champion of the 21st season of The Ultimate Fighter and is 9-0 in the UFC. Usman has passed every test he’s faced thus far with flying colors.

The veteran Woodley is five years older than Usman, while Usman is the taller and longer fighter. Usman has the superior striking statistics and both men are top-notch wrestlers.

What are the paths to victory for both men when they meet on Saturday night? Let’s find out.

How Woodley can win

The current incarnation of “The Chosen One” dates back to Woodley’s loss to Rory MacDonald in 2014. Woodley had losses prior to that fight — a knockout against Nate Marquardt in 2012 and a split decision against Jake Shields in 2013 — but never changed much as a result.

He was content to rely on his explosiveness and wrestling pedigree to secure the victory.

Against MacDonald, Woodley’s usual tactics proved fruitless. MacDonald was able to back Woodley up against the fence and overwhelm the champion with striking volume. Woodley was clearly uncomfortable being pressured and was too preoccupied with defense to offer any meaningful offense. MacDonald was constantly one step ahead and increasingly took over the fight as it progressed.

Woodley was able to throw a few dangerous right hands, but eventually wilted under the constant pressure. MacDonald even landed a takedown in the third round — the only time Woodley has been taken down in his UFC career to date. Its worth noting that Woodley had virtually nothing to offer off his back.

Following that fight, Woodley retooled his game. Like Georges St-Pierre before him, Woodley embraced his weaknesses and found excellence in simplicity.

Woodley’s main weapons on the feet are a pawing left hand and a lightning-fast right hand. The American often throws the left hand out noncommittally; it’s simply a distraction to set up the right hand.

“The Chosen One” will often come forward very early in the fight looking to scare his opponent off, but as the fight develops Woodley positions himself against the fence. His newfound comfort in the pocket and focus on distance management allows him to safely strike with his back against the fence.

Woodley often utilizes the pull-counter to land his right hand, especially against the fence. Woodley will lean forward to give his opponent a false sense of range; when they attack Woodley is able to lean back and avoid his opponent’s strike. This allows Woodley to counter his now defenseless opponent.

Woodley used this technique beautifully against Darren Till:

His striking is simple, but incredibly effective. Since the MacDonald bout, Woodley has scored a knockdown in six of his seven bouts. He also utilizes leg kicks sparingly, but they are very effective.

Woodley primarily utilizes his wrestling to stay on the feet. When he does wind up in top position, Woodley has smothering control as well as brutal ground-and-pound.

Another benefit of Woodley’s new refined style is that it preserves his cardio. A key reason Woodley was taken down by MacDonald is that “The Chosen One” was gassed from MacDonald’s pressure and from throwing right hands with everything behind them.

It’s earned him the ire of many fans, but the current version of Woodley is comfortable letting large swaths of the fight pass without forcing activity. This has led to some very close and uneventful fights but has allowed Woodley to remain champion.

How can Usman win?

Usman’s success inside the cage is defined by pressure and volume. Since his debut, the former-NCAA Division II national champion has had the same game plan: pressure his opponent to the fence, clinch, take them down, and repeat until the bell rings or his opponent can’t continue.

On the feet, “The Nigerian Nightmare” is an athletic yet unrefined force and looks every bit of it. Usman has raw power that is evident whenever he connects, and his supreme conditioning allows Usman to set a pace that no opponent has been able to match. Usman lands 2.38 times as many significant strikes as his opponents and out-lands them by 2.28 significant strikes per minute.

Usman’s confidence is a double-edged sword considering how underdeveloped his striking is. At times, Usman can look uncomfortable or unsure of himself on the feet. When striking in the center of the cage, or when his opponent come forward on him, Usman often gets hit hard and hit clean. The challenger has yet to be hurt in the UFC, but he’s also yet to face a puncher as powerful as Woodley.

The Nigerian really starts to shine once he can get his hands on his opponent.

Rather than shoot at range, Usman pursues takedowns when his opponent is against the fence. Usman is relentless once he has a grip on his opponent; the former collegiate wrestling champion lands 4.47 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.

On the ground Usman’s game is control-oriented. He focuses on maintaining position and wearing down his opponents. Usman only has one submission in the UFC.

The early rounds are the toughest for Usman. Usman gets hits the hardest in those rounds and his fresh opponents are better able to defend the challenger’s takedowns. As the fight develops, Usman’s pressure, volume, and conditioning allow him to break his opponents and become increasingly dominant.

The X-Factor: Closing the Distance

This fight will be defined in two key exchanges where one of the fighters must close the distance.

Woodley almost always has an initial blitz or two designed to catch his opponent off-guard and/or scare them from pressuring. How Usman handles this blitz is the first key exchange that will define the fight.

Usman gets hit with clean shots when his opponent comes forward, especially early in the fight. If Woodley can connect with a right hand early, it could be a rough night for Usman. Even if Usman survives, he’ll likely be wary of the right hand for the rest of the night. Fighting cautious should be catastrophic for the challenger’s title aspirations.

The second key exchange will take place when Usman tries to enter the clinch. Based on previous Usman fights, this exchange will take place multiple times over the course of the fight.

Against the old Woodley, the one who panicked when pressured, Usman would have a field day. Against the current iteration however, the one who willingly fights with his back against the wall, Usman will have to dodge dangerous strikes if he hopes to secure the clinch.

Woodley allowed Demian Maia to get in on his hips multiple times in their fight. If Usman can get that close to Woodley, it should allow “The Nigerian Nightmare” to work his game plan and tire the champ out.

Current and Past Odds

Entering his fifth title defense, Woodley is the favorite for only the second time since becoming champion. Considering he’s 4-0-1 during that time, Woodley has been very profitable for bettors.

The challenger is entering the fight as an underdog for the first time in his UFC career. Like the champion, Usman has proven profitable for backers – but at a much steeper cost.

Prediction

Woodley and Usman are both process-driven fighters who deserve to be fighting at the highest level. This will be a matchup of strength versus strength as both men want the fight to take place at the same place.

Woodley has already faced setbacks and had to evolve his game to compensate for his flaws. Usman has yet to suffer his first “prospect loss” – he’s yet to suffer due to his lack of defense on the feet and the brazen way he enters the clinch.

I expect Woodley will to make Usman pay in this fight. The champ’s right hand will prove too dangerous for the challenger and Woodley will walk away with the victory.

The Pick: Woodley -190