NASCAR Quaker State 400 Matchup Odds, Picks: How to Bet Kurt Busch

Tonight's Quaker State 400 takes place just a few hours after inspection, which could alter the starting lineup. Any driver whose car fails inspection will have to start at the rear of the 36-car field.

That's important because the betting market frequently overvalues driver starting position. Bettors can take advantage of lines that are incorrect thanks to a driver's starting position. As such, I'm holding off on most of my prop bets until inspection results are in.

However, there is one head-to-head bet I like prior to inspection to take advantage of now. I'll add more props as an update at the bottom of this piece as inspection results come in, and more books post lines.

All odds as of 7:30 a.m. ET on Saturday.

Kurt Busch -110 over Clint Bowyer

Busch has been fast all weekend, posting the fastest single-lap time in opening practice, and top-10 times over all the long-run categories in final practice.

Busch has been a model of consistency at 1.5-mile tracks, with five top-13 finishes in six races. His only blemish was a 27th-place finish at Charlotte, where he was running inside the top 10 at the end of Stage 3 before problems derailed his otherwise strong night.

Meanwhile, Bowyer has struggled to find speed this weekend, running only 12th over 10 consecutive laps in Happy Hour, 0.8 mph slower than Busch. That gap widens to a full mph over 15 laps, which equates to about two-tenths of a second per lap. That means Busch was, in total, three seconds faster than Bowyer during each driver's top 15-lap run.

The gap between the drivers seems to widen as the weather cools, as well, which is important with this race taking place at night. Busch was more than two mph faster than Bowyer in opening practice over 10 consecutive laps.

If Busch fails inspection while Bowyer doesn't, I'd likely bet this prop again with Busch at plus odds. However, if Bowyer fails inspection while Busch doesn't, Busch will be an even heavier favorite to the point where I wouldn't bet him. That's why it's wise to lock in this prop now.

Update: The cars of Ryan Newman and Quin Houff failed inspection and will start at the back of the field.

Other Prop Bets

Here are other prop bets I like for the Quaker State 400.

• Denny Hamlin (-115) over Alex Bowman
• Ryan Newman (+130) over Daniel Hemric