Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Thursday: Will Reggie Jackson Put Up 17 Points?

The three NBA player props highlighted below are from the following two games:

• Denver Nuggets at Washington Wizards: 7 p.m. ET
• Minnesota Timberwolves at Charlotte Hornets: 7 p.m. ET
• Detroit Pistons at Phoenix Suns: 10 p.m. ET

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 4 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Wizards PG Tomas Satoransky

THE PICK: Over 10 Points (-115)

Trevor Ariza (groin) is out, but that's not even what this is about — the line is simply too low for a player who has dropped in 11-plus points in 9-of-14 (64.3%) games since the All-Star break.

Satoransky should be able to make it 10-of-15 in a what's likely to be a back-and-fourth game between a Wizards team that could struggle to give effort defensively after playing an overtime game on Wednesday night.

In fact, the under for Wizards-Nuggets has drawn only 11% of dollars wagered as of this writing (see live odds) and is also a match for the Bet Labs PRO System "Tickets vs. Money NBA Overs," which has seen the over hit at a 55% clip since 2015.

Satoransky has scored at least 11 points in 11 of his past 18 starts (61.1%), so this should have value up to -150.

Hornets SF Nicolas Batum

THE PICK: Over 3.5 assists (-135)

Batum is coming off back-to-back one-assist games, but should be able to get back to posting crooked numbers in the assist column against Minnesota.

His last two clunkers came against Miami and Philadelphia, both of which are tied for the third-fewest assists allowed per game (23.0). Meanwhile, the T-Wolves are allowing the third-most per game (26.1).

The key is the 3-ball.

Timberwolves are allowing the most 3-point makes per game in the league (12.7), and even though the Hornets are on the low end in 3-point assist rate, that’s still good for an assist rate of 78.5% on 3-balls. For comparison: Only 48.1% of Charlotte’s 2s have been assisted.

I’d play this up to -150.

Pistons PG Reggie Jackson

THE PICK: Under 16.5 Points (-122)

Jackson is averaging 14.6 points in 27.6 minutes per game on the road this season, but has seen his playing time dip to 24.0 minutes per game in March as he battles through an ankle injury, and our NBA Player Models have him projected for just 25.5 minutes and 13.9 points tonight in Phoenix.

Point guard Tyler Johnson (knee) will be in street clothes for the Suns, which creates a tougher matchup for Jackson against DeAnthony Melton. Melton's Defensive Box Plus/Minus is positive (+1.1) while Johnson's is negative (-1.2), and Melton's increased playing time is a big reason why the Suns rank first against point guards in points allowed (17.9) and field goal percentage allowed (34.7%) over the past month (per Hashtag Basketball).

According to Cleaning the Glass, the Suns have allowed the highest frequency of shots at the rim since the trade deadline (43.0%), but they let up the fourth-lowest rate of 3-point attempts (30.6%) and fifth-lowest rate of mid-range shots (26.4%) over that span — not good news for a player who only takes 20% of his shots at the rim.

Jackson has been under 16.5 points in 22-of-34 (64.7%) road games and under 15.5 in 21-of-34 (61.8%), so this prop should have value down to under 15.5 at -150.

This prop is rated a 9-of-10 in Bet Quality by our props tool, and props rated as such have produced a 58% win rate since the start of this season.

I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there as well.