After hitting two of our three NBA player props last night, we'll try to finish the weekend on a high note. The NBA has a solid seven-game slate tonight, but there is still plenty of value on the board to take advantage of.
In the table below, you can find my top two NBA player prop picks for today, Sunday, March 17, featuring bets for Jalen Suggs and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Let's break down how I am targeting these two players tonight.
NBA Player Props Today
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6 p.m. | |
| 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
The Orlando Magic are rolling right now winning 10 of their last 13 games. They are starting an eight-game home stand tonight as 13-point favorites against the Raptors. The Magic just beat the Raptors in their last game 113-103 to improve their record to 39-28. The Raptors have six-straight games and have a plethora of injuries right now.
Jalen Suggs has seen an increase in playing time recently, which is why his peripheral stats are starting to ramp up. Over his last 11 games, Suggs is averaging 12.7 points and 3.3 assists per game.
In that stretch, Suggs has recorded the second-most passes on the team with 37.6 and is averaging five potential assists. We are targeting his over assists prop, which he has exceeded in eight of those last 11 games. Our prop model has Suggs projected for 3.4 assists.
Since the All-Star Break, the Raptors have been one of the best matchups to target for an opposing player. They rank second in pace and 25th in defensive rating. In their 12 games since the break, the Raptors are allowing 119.7 points per game. The Magic are implied for a modest 115 points as they should dominate this cupcake matchup tonight.
Suggs has had a few high assists games recently, but don't get carried away with this prop. His over 3.5 assists prop is currently +135 at DraftKings and that is as far as I would recommend going.
The matchup is fantastic and the increased playing time is a bonus. Expect Suggs to capture three or more assists again tonight.
Pick: Jalen Suggs Over 2.5 Assists (-150)
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After missing last game with an illness, Bogdan Bogdanovic is not listed on the injury report for tonight's matchup against the Clippers. However, Trae Young, Saddiq Bey, and Onyeka Okongwu all remain out, which is a big reason why the Hawks are nearly double-digit road underdogs implied for only 105.5 points tonight.
In 14 games without Young in the lineup, Bogdanovic is averaging 3.6 assists per game which is a boost from his 2.8 per game with Young. He has captured four or more assists in four of his last five games, averaging 5.6 per game over that time. Bogdanovic's last two games he has recorded seven and eight assists, which is well over his prop line.
The Clippers have been an exploitable matchup, which is surprising due to their elite defensive talent. Since the All-Star Break, the Clippers rank 25th in defensive rating at 116.9 per game. They have lost three of their last four games and five of their last seven home games. The Hawks should be able to keep this game competitive.
In his only matchup against the Clippers this season, Bogdanovic came off the bench and had six assists in 27 minutes of play.
Our prop model has Bogdanovic projected for 4.8 assists, and I would feel comfortable taking his over if the line moved to 4.5 assists. I don't even mind climbing the ladder with this prop and getting exposure to Bogdanovic's alternate lines. Five or more assists is +135 and eight or more is currently +1000.
Everything is aligning for a ceiling performance tonight.
Pick: Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 3.5 Assists (-145)
