Sobel’s Sentry Tournament of Championship Matchup Bets: Fade the Leader in Round 2?

Patrick Reed converted a final-hole eagle to push one first-round bet at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, but a late birdie rally from Bryson DeChambeau wasn’t enough and Aaron Wise lost his pillow fight vs. Paul Casey to leave us down for the day.

No worries, I always like Round 2 matchups better anyway.

Season record: 5-6-1 (-0.71 units)

Gary Woodland (-150) over Kevin Tway (+130)

Congrats to Tway, who posted an opening 7-under 66 to grab the overnight lead. It’s even more impressive considering he did so with a sinus infection, ear infection and “feeling dizzy” throughout the round.

I bet he can’t do it again — literally.

Armed with that info, Tway is an easy second-round fade in the final pairing against Woodland, a guy I liked a lot to contend even before the week started.

Andrew Landry (+105) over Patton Kizzire (-125)

In the first round, Kizzire posted a 4-under 66 to land in a share of sixth place. Solid round, right? Absolutely — but the numbers suggest it might not be sustainable.

Last year’s Sony Open champ posted an ace and three birdies in his first 13 holes, but ran out of gas after that, playing his final five holes (which included two par-5s) 1-over. Meanwhile, Landry is a solid wind player and it’s supposed to blow some more on Friday.

Charles Howell III (+115) over Francesco Molinari (-135)

I touted CH3 leading up to the opening round, but he disappointed with a 1-over 74. No worries, I’m sticking with him, though it’s really more of a Frankie fade.

On a wide open course that often yields huge driving numbers, Molinari is averaging 270 yards off the tee. He usually counteracts that with great iron play, but he’s currently 28th in strokes gained on approach shots. I’d rather bank on Howell’s cold putter heating up.