MLB Player Props Tuesday | How to Bet Shohei Ohtani
Photo by Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers)
It's "Dinger Tuesday" and Shohei Ohtani has had little problems hitting home runs any day of the week.
Tonight, the game's best player will take his swings against Marlins starter Edward Cabrera.
However, first, we'll begin in the Bronx, where the Yankees will host the Astros. Justin Verlander and Lucas Gil will get the ball.
MLB Player Props Tuesday
- Justin Verlander/Luis Gil 2 Walks Parlay (-115) DraftKings
- Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
In 27 career starts against the Yankees, Verlander has a 3.41 ERA. However, he's really been a thorn in their side of late.
In four starts against the Yankees last season, Verlander allowed two runs or fewer in three of them. He's pitched six innings in each of his last seven regular season starts against the Yankees.
In each of those starts, he faced 20 batters or more, which also gives him more chances for walks. Verlander has walked two Yankees in four of those starts, including four last July.
Verlander has also walked seven batters in his last two starts and is facing a Yankees lineup that's second in walk rate against right-handed pitchers.
As a result, Verlander is -200 to walk two batters tonight as a straight bet. Instead, I'm pairing him with Yankees starter Luis Gil, who's also struggled with control a bit.
Gil is coming off his best outing of the season, tossing six scoreless innings while striking out five at Baltimore. He also only walked one batter, but that's been an exception for him this season. Gil walked two batters in each of his first five starts. He walked three batters in four consecutive starts, including 11 in consecutive starts against Toronto.
The Astros are only 21st in walk rate against right-handed pitchers thus far.
However, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman have each drawn 13 walks or more already. The Astros' quartet often makes up the first four hitters in their lineup, and Gil has particularly struggled with his control in the first.
It's possible Gil walks two batters in the first inning, and we'll just have to wait for Verlander. Verlander may have a longer leash with his pitch count tonight, but I anticipate that both he and Gil will walk two or more batters tonight.
Pick: Justin Verlander/Luis Gil 2 Walks Parlay (-115)
Ohtani hit safely in seven of his first nine games with the Dodgers. While he was getting on base, he didn't hit a home run until his ninth game as a Dodger.
Of course, it came against the rival Giants.
Including that game, Ohtani is slashing .407/.473/.814 with 11 doubles, one triple, 11 home runs and 24 runs batted over his last 28 games.
More recently, Ohtani has homered four times in his last three games, including a pair of mammoth shots north of 440 feet. He's +320 on FanDuel to launch another tonight.
Tonight, Ohtani will face Cabrera, who has electric stuff but has struggled of late. In 8 1/3 innings, Cabrera has allowed seven hits, 10 runs (nine earned) and two homers while walking six over his last two starts.
Ohtani is 0-for-3 against Cabrera, but he enters tonight's game on a six-game hitting streak. In that stretch, he has four multi-hit games. That's helped him hit this line in four of those games, while averaging 4.2 total bases in that span.
We'll take two total bases at plus money tonight, although he may get four if he circles the bases again.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
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