Last night gave us an interesting beginning to the week as we landed on both sides of the hook. Miles McBride finished with 13 points, coming just shy of his line while Jalen Green scored 27 points, clearing his line by one. In the process, we finished 2-1 on the night to begin the week in the green.
Tonight, we begin in Milwaukee where the Lakers will be visiting the Bucks. They will likely be without LeBron James tonight, who is listed as doubtful for tonight's game. That means D'Angelo Russell will be the primary facilitator.
Last season, the Thunder and Pelicans met in the 9-10 matchup of the play-in tournament. This season, the two teams hold two of the top four seeds in the West, making tonight's game an important one for seeding. C.J. McCollum will look to stay hot against the Thunder.
On Sunday night, the Lakers scored 150 points against the Pacers, their most in 37 years. D'Angelo Russell did not play that game and he had just three assists on Friday against the Sixers. The previous two games, he had 13 assists against the Warriors and 10 against the Hawks. LeBron James did play in those two games, but those numbers are more in line with Russell's averages when James does not play.
This season, Russell has played nine games without James on the floor and he has eight assists in all of them. In seven of those games, he has had nine assists or more and he is averaging 10.7 assists without James. That includes 14 assists against the Celtics and 17 against the Jazz. Russell also had nine assists in the last meeting against the Bucks.
That game had 245 points and Russell accounted for 44 of them, including the game-winning floater with 9.2 seconds left. Russell's points line is 20.5, making his points + assists line 28.5 tonight. While I don't mind either of those props, it is hard to go against a 100% hit rate, particularly in this matchup. This season, the Bucks are 16th in assists allowed and they are 20th in assists allowed to point guards over the last 15 games.
In addition to Russell, this month the Bucks have allowed Chris Paul, De'Aaron Fox, Dennis Schroder, and Dennis Smith Jr. to hit their assists lines along with shooting guards Derrick White, Bradley Beal, and Josh Giddey. Paul, Schroder, White, and Giddey all had at least eight assists, which is what we will need from Russell tonight.
You can also back Russell for 10 assists at +240 on FanDuel. He has gotten there twice in his last five games as well in five of nine games without James this season.
Pick: D'Angelo Russell Over 7.5 Assists (-129)
CJ McCollum is averaging 18.6 points per game this season, essentially one shy of the 20 that he will need to clear this line tonight. However, he has scored 30 and 23 points in the Pelicans last two games since Brandon Ingram went down to injury. That is on par to his averages playing without Ingram since he joined the Pelicans.
McCollum is averaging 23.6 points per game in his last 10 games played without Ingram. He has scored 20 points in eight of those games and finished with 19 in another. Going back further, he is averaging 22 points in 39 games without Ingram since the start of last season, clearing this line at a 64% clip. Two of those games have come against Oklahoma City and he scored 26 points last March and 29 points in November.
The Thunder are middle of the pack in 3-point percentage defense, but they are allowing 13.4 3s per game, 24th-most in the league. McCollum has made nine 3s in his last two games against the Thunder. He also has made three triples in eight of his last 10 games without Ingram, including four in six of them. McCollum's made 3s is +106 on FanDuel if you prefer more juice.
However, McCollum has taken at least 18 field goal attempts in three of his last five games, scoring 30 points in the two that he attempted 20 field goals in. Without Ingram tonight, he should have that kind of volume once again and that may led to another big scoring night. McCollum is +260 for 25 points and +800 for 30 points on FanDuel.
Pick: CJ McCollum Over 19.5 Points (-111)
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