Locky’s First Period NHL Model, 3/13: Returning to the Devils

Good morning!

The model had a profitable day vs. the openers yesterday, as all three edges won, and easily. It's the type of day you hope you get, but considering the volatility of first periods, you rarely do.

As for today, a lighter slate, with just three games, and just two worth mentioning.

A Reminder

If you’re new here, I built a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.

To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.

New Jersey Devils at Calgary Flames

9 p.m. ET

The first game worth mentioning (in my opinion) is the Blackhawks yet again. Chicago is on such a continual hot streak in the first period that its prices remain very high. At the opener of -250, I see no value, even though they are playing a Toronto team that has a pretty average first-period profile and scores a lot of goals in general.

The game that I do see an edge in is the Devils, coming off one of the worst third periods I've ever seen last night in Calgary when they allowed six goals to lose 9-4. New Jersey turns it around tonight to play Edmonton, and these are two teams that have been extremely high-scoring in first periods.

Edmonton scores and allows a much-higher-than-average percent of its goals in the first, as does New Jersey. Hopefully those tired Devils defensemen make this one easy.

Locky’s First-Period NHL Over/Unders: Full Slate Projections

Download the Excel doc to input odds from your sportsbooks. The table below is best viewed on a desktop computer.