Premier League: Boxing Day Betting Market Analysis and Previews

The busy holiday schedule continues with nine EPL matches on Wednesday, December 26th, better known as "Boxing Day". There's also one match scheduled for Thursday between West Ham United and Southampton.

Last weekend saw the biggest EPL upset we've ever tracked as Crystal Palace beat Manchester City, 3-2, at Etihad Stadium. Palace closed +1870 on the moneyline and received just 10% of offshore wagers.

Over the next nine days, 13% of the Premier League season will be played. It's a pivotal time to earn points at both the top and bottom of the standings.

2018-19 Season Trends

• Road teams dominated Week 18, winning 7 of 10 matches for +31.43 units.
• Crystal Palace's (+1870) win over Man City was the biggest upset we've ever tracked, while Leicester City's (+940) win at Chelsea was the second-largest this season.
• Liverpool is still unbeaten in the league this season, winning 15 and drawing 3 matches. They've only conceded 7 goals, an average of 0.38 per game.

For Week 19, I've analyzed the betting market for every match and provided four value plays (21-41-1 season record, -8.34 units).

(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)

Wednesday Betting Previews

Who's ready for Fulham-Wolves at 7:30 a.m. ET?! It's a crucial home match for Fulham who still sit at the bottom of the league table, but they did earn a road point at Newcastle last weekend. Wolves had their three-game winning streak halted vs. Liverpool, but no club has been able to solve the Reds yet this year, so it's hardly a bad loss.

The majority of bettors are backing Wolves (+139) to pick up a victory, but odds have shifted toward Fulham (+235 to +230) and the draw (+251 to +239), signaling some sharper money on the home side.

League-leaders Liverpool should have no problem with Newcastle as -630 home favorites but public bettors are taking a shot on the visitors at +1860 odds. Due to Crystal Palace and Leicester City pulling off upsets in Week 18, casual bettors will feel better about taking big underdogs over the next couple weeks, but this isn't one I'm keen on.

Two other big favorites that are expected to continue their winning ways are Manchester United (-420 vs. Huddersfield) and Tottenham (-270 vs. Bournemouth). Both are at home and coming off four-goal road victories, and they can't afford to lose pace with the other top clubs in the league.

Oddly enough, Manchester City are the big favorites with the most to prove this week after losing two of three league games. Just 10 days ago they were listed at –275 to win the Premier League, but that has dropped significantly to -115, a 20% change in probability.

A trip to Leicester City could prove difficult on Wednesday, but Man City are considerable -270 favorites to grab all three points. Public bettors are siding with another upset, but this is a great spot to buy "low" and take Man City to win. So far, this match has taken twice as many bets as any other on the board.

The trickiest matches on the board are Burnley-Everton (10 a.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold) and Brighton-Arsenal (12:15 p.m. ET on NBC Sports). Everton and Arsenal are both short road favorites getting considerable betting support, but odds have moved the other way in each game.

More than 75% of public bettors are on the Gunners, but the line has drifted toward Brighton and the draw. The betting market still doesn't seem to be convinced of Arsenal this season as their moneyline has come down to -135 from -150. Some of the movement could be due to injuries and oddsmakers clearly aren't worried about an influx of Arsenal bets.

It's the same story for Everton. The Toffees have attracted 70% of wagers but have gone from -125 to -105 against Burnley. The Clarets have played Tottenham and Arsenal very tight in the last two matches despite losing both, and I could definitely see the home side earning at least a point for their efforts against Everton.

If seven hours of football wasn't enough, Watford and Chelsea square off at 2:30 p.m. ET (NBC Sports). The betting action has been spread out on all three moneylines, but odds are moving on Watford to win or draw. They've quietly moved into seventh in the league table and could jump ahead to sixth with a victory against the Blues. I'd lean toward these teams splitting the points in what could be the match of the day.

Lopsided Bets and Line Moves

• There has been notable line movement in nearly every match this week, but the biggest moves have been toward the Fulham-Wolves Draw, Manchester United and Burnley.
• Other moves include Brighton, Watford, Liverpool and Crystal Palace.

Value Plays

• Fulham +0.5 (-150) vs. Wolves
• Man Utd/Liverpool/Tottenham/Man City parlay (+170)
• Crystal Palace (-150) vs. Cardiff City
• Burnley +0.5 (-105) vs. Everton