NFL Live Betting Week 17: How We’re Live Betting Saturday Night Football

For the second time in as many weeks, the NFC North champion Detroit Lions get an island game. The Lions are still in the running for the top seed in the NFC playoffs, as they're in a three-way tie with the 49ers and Eagles for the conference's best record.

Just one game behind them is the Cowboys, who are still live for the NFC East, with an outside shot at the top seed. There's plenty at stake in this game, which is why the NFL flexed it to the Saturday night game.

NFL Live Betting for Saturday Night Football in Week 17

Lions at Cowboys: Look for Overs — LIVE BET MADE, Over 42.5 (-110, DraftKings)

We've had two redzone drives from the Lions result in three total points, plus the Cowboys fall victim to the dumbest rule in sports turning a likely touchdown into a touchback. On top of that, the total has dropped a full ten points and Dallas has the lead and the ball. That's about as perfect of a storm as we could ask for, so we'll take over 42.5 -110 at DraftKings before this total comes back up.

Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff.

This was our strategy last week as the Lions took on the Vikings. The total jumped to 54.5 around halftime (from the pregame 47) and we took it, unfortunately getting hooked at exactly 54.

This week, I'm struck by how remarkably similar of a setup this is for Detroit. Dallas ranks just behind Minnesota defensively in both rush and pass DVOA. The pace splits are broadly similar as well, with the Lions trailing producing the fastest game script. Detroit is one of the fastest teams when playing from behind, but plays a bit slower than average in all other scenarios.

Where this game differs from last week's is the quality of the offense opposing Detroit. Dallas is a top-tier offense through the air — where Detroit is weak — and obviously enjoys much better quarterback play than the Vikings since (and also, before) the loss of Kirk Cousins for the season.

All of which is to say we should see this game finish above 50 just like the Lions did last week, which is why I took the over heading into the game. The only scenario in which we'd pivot from that belief for our live bet would be a big Lions lead, given Detroit's propensity to kill the clock when playing from in front.

Of course, we'd like to get a lower number before jumping on the over, so keep an eye out for line movement as this game progresses. The perfect scenario would be the Cowboys up a score or two and the total below 50, but we've got some wiggle room on both the number and the game flow.

In the unlikely event that the underdog Lions race out to a big lead, we'll want an elevated total before we take the under. We'll be pickier in this situation, as the Lions bad pass defense against the Cowboys passing attack could erase a lead in a hurry. Along those lines, if Dallas moves to underdogs on the point spread, we'll also consider a bet on their spread or moneyline.

How We Approach Live Betting in General

The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.

The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.

Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.

Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.