Lions vs Cowboys Best Bets: Over/Under & Prop Picks (NFL Week 17)

Lions vs Cowboys Best Bets

We have Lions vs. Cowboys best bets for what is shaping up to be a juicy matchup between NFC contenders tonight. Dallas is hoping that some home cooking can get it back on track, while the Lions are hoping to secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

We have bets on either side of the over/under and two props. Click on a pick below to navigate this post.

By Ricky Henne

This total was initially a stay away for me. However, according to Evan Abrams' weekly NFL preview, the under is 27-12 (69%) over the last two years when the total is 50 or higher. I may end up looking foolish, but a trend hitting at that high a rate is too strong for me to ignore.

Additionally, the under has hit in three straight games for the Cowboys. It’s also 4-0 when the total closes at 48.5 or higher and has hit in their last three games against teams with a top-10 scoring offense.

Meanwhile, the Lions have been a machine to the over this year at 10-5. However, three of those unders came against a top-10 scoring defense. The fifth-ranked Cowboys allow only 19.1 points per game.

If any teams can eclipse 52 points it’s the Cowboys and Lions. They rank second and fifth, respectively, with Dallas averaging 30.1 PPG and Detroit 27.5 points per game.

Still, I’ll play a trend hitting nearly 70% of the time all day, every day.

By Billy Ward

The total for Lions-Cowboys was as high as 53.5 earlier in the week, but I knew we could do better. As of Friday night, it's dropped back down to 52, which might be as good as it gets if you're looking to take the over.

I took the over on the Lions last week in Minnesota, noting that five of the seven Lions dome games this season have gone over 50 points. After beating the Vikings 30-24 in Week 16, that number is now six of eight. Just one of those finished between 50 and 52, if you're keeping track.

All things considered, it's a remarkably similar matchup for Detroit this week. I know how crazy that sounds at first glance, but hear me out.

Minnesota ranks fifth in DVOA defensively while Dallas ranks sixth. The Vikings rank slightly ahead of the Cowboys in both run and pass defense, with both teams better against the pass.

Of course, the Cowboys offense is far better than the Vikings’. That's why the total is about five points higher than Vikings-Lions — and why we're still taking the over. More importantly, Dallas is much better at attacking through the air than Minnesota, which is the way to attack a Lions defense that ranks 16th against the pass but fourth against the run.

The main risk is that Dallas blows Detroit out and can take its foot off the gas, but that's hard to see coming. The Lions’ only non-competitive games have both been outside, and they've scored at least 20 in every indoor game.

I'm still holding out hope we can get this number at 52 — or lower, perhaps — but I would still bet the over on 52.5.

Pick: Over 52.5

By John LanFranca

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have been tremendous at home this season, and I don't expect that to change against a vulnerable Lions defense.

Prescott has thrown for more than 270 yards in five consecutive home games, and the upside for this particular game is even higher considering the potential of a shootout. If this game closes with 52 as the total, it will be one of the highest totals of the season thus far.

Since their Week 9 bye, the Lions have given up 8.4 yards per pass attempt, ranking them 30th in the league. The Cowboys have made a living out of creating explosive pass plays, with 57 plays of 20-plus yards this season, the fourth-most in the NFL. The Detroit defense has allowed an explosive pass play of 20 or more yards on an astounding 11% of all attempts this year, ranking them 31st in this category.

Prescott has averaged 8.5 yards per attempt at home this year, and it wouldn't surprise anybody to see him throw it 40-plus times in a controlled environment on Saturday night.

I'd bet this over up to 285.5.

By Nick Giffen

Raymond’s man/zone splits are ridiculous this season. Against zone, he's averaging 2.54 yards per route run and 1.45 vs. man. He has a 22.8% target rate against zone and 12.2% against man.

The Cowboys play man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. In Raymond’s two games against teams that play man at a top-eight rate, he has just 20 receiving yards: Week 1 at the Chiefs, he had one reception (one target) for 20 yards, and he wasn't targeted in Week 13 at the Saints.

Raymond’s catch rate of 78% is also for regression. With an average depth of target of 8.4, he should be around 68%. Of note is that the Cowboys are also first in DVOA against short passes.

While Raymond could clear this line with one catch, his yards per reception projection of 12.8 means he’d probably need two catches to clear. We're projecting him for under two receptions.