MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Tuesday Odds & Model Predictions
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Colorado’s Dakota Hudson.
We had just one MLB NRFI pick yesterday, which unfortunately didn't work out for us, bringing the season record to 71-55 for 12 units of profit.
The risk on the Mets side of the NRFI that I acknowledged ahead of time came back to get us.
Now, we have four MLB NRFI & YRFI picks and predictions for Tuesday, May 7, with games scheduled throughout the evening.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Tuesday Odds & Model Predictions
Starting Pitchers: Jose Berrios vs. Cristopher Sanchez
Jose Berrios hasn't been nearly as good as his 1.44 ERA indicates, but Cristopher Sanchez has been even better than his 3.68 mark. Combined, we'll call that a wash.
More importantly, both pitchers have solid xFIP numbers their first time through the order, and the top of the Phillies' lineup took a hit with the loss of Trea Turner to a hamstring injury.
There's some risk on the Phillies' side with their strong order, but given the low juice and the Blue Jays' lack of a first-inning threat, it's a risk worth taking.
Starting Pitchers: Kutter Crawford vs. Reynaldo Lopez
The two pitchers starting tonight's game have a combined ERA of 3.06 through 70 innings pitched between them. Boston also features a roughly league-average offense that's unlikely to get to Lopez and his 0.75 first-time-through-the-order ERA early.
At the end of the day, the decision comes down to the Braves' stacked lineup against Crawford. The 28-year-old has posted better numbers in each of his four MLB seasons, and while he won't finish the year with a 1.56 ERA, his sub-3.00 xERA is also excellent.
I'm convinced of Crawford's ascendance, but I could see the case for fading this pick if you're not.
Starting Pitchers: Jose Butto vs. Miles Mikolas
We took the loss on the NRFI in this series yesterday, and I've learned my lesson. While the Cardinals offense is struggling, they're much better against right-handed pitching, which improves their first-run equity tonight.
The Mets again have a strong projection against Mikolas, who comes into the game with a 5.68 ERA and 5.33 xERA.
Essentially, they project the same as they did yesterday, but a better number on the Cardinals flips my projection from a NRFI to a YRFI.
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Harrison vs. Dakota Hudson
I can't believe we're getting such a low-juice YRFI, considering this game has a double-digit run total. The Rockies offense is bad, to put it mildly, but they have a chance against a low-strikeout, high-flyball pitcher in Harrison.
Of course, the vast majority of the value here is on the Giants' side. They're facing Dakota Hudson and his 5.93 ERA that jumps to 7.36 his first time through the order.
I'm splitting my exposure here between betting to win a half-unit on the game YRFI at Caesars and a half-unit on the Giants team-specific line at +195 at DraftKings.
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