Capitals vs Maple Leafs Prediction: NHL Odds, Pick & Betting Preview

Thursday, March 28

7 p.m. ET

ESPN+

Capitals Odds	+145
Maple Leafs Odds	-170
Over / Under	6.5 +100/ -120

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about the Washington Capitals vs. Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday, March 28 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.

Capitals vs. Maple Leafs odds have Toronto as a -185 favorite on the moneyline while the over/under is set at 6.5 total goals. The over has been the bet to make when the Capitals and Leafs have squared off over the past couple of seasons as it's 6-2-2 across their past 10 meetings. Find out why I like the over to cash once again as my Capitals vs Maple Leafs prediction for Thursday evening.

There have been seven or more total goals scored in four of Washington's past five games, a trend that is the product of multiple variables. First, the offense is clicking and averaging 4.4 goals scored over that five-game stretch.

However, the defense continues to bleed high-danger scoring chances at a high rate. The Capitals rank 21st in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

Subsequently, they rank in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed per game, shots on goal allowed per game and penalty kill percentage. Backing up this poor defensive team is goaltender Charlie Lindgren, who is slated to guard the cage for Washington on Thursday.

While he has put together a strong campaign, he just got shelled by Toronto last week. Lindgren allowed seven goals in that game as the over easily hit.

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It shouldn't be shocking that the Capitals and Lindgren struggled against the Leafs, one of the league's best offenses. Toronto ranks in the top seven in goals scored per game, shots on goal per game, power play percentage and shooting percentage.

Regression is unlikely with this group as they also rank fourth in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Toronto has scored three or more goals in seven of its past eight games.

However, as has typically been the case in the Auston Matthews era, this blue line continues to hold the team back. The Maple Leafs rank in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed per game, shots on goal allowed per game, penalty kill percentage, penalty minutes taken per game and xGA/60.

The biggest concern with the over in this contest is goaltending, which is why we are catching plus-money. However, Lindgren got shelled in his start against Toronto last week.

Joseph Woll started between the pipes for the Leafs in that game and also put together a poor performance, allowing three goals on just 21 shots. He is the confirmed starter for Toronto in this game, so I wouldn't be shocked if we see a contest similar to that 10-goal meeting between these teams.

Woll has allowed three or more goals in four of his past five starts, posting a 1-4 record with a fade-worthy .871 SV% and a 3.65 GAA over that stretch.

Pick: Over 6.5 (+100 at bet365) | Play to -105

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