NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Flyers vs Sabres (Friday, April 5)
Flyers vs. Sabres Odds
| Flyers Odds | +105 |
| Sabres Odds | -125 |
| Over / Under | 6 -115 / -105 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Philadelphia Flyers vs. Buffalo Sabres on Friday, April 5 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Despite an untimely five-game losing streak, the Flyers still own a one-point lead in a crowded race for the final wild card spot. They are going to turn to newcomer Ivan Fedotov in goal for this crucial matchup after he showed well in relief on Tuesday.
The Sabres are not mathematically eliminated themselves, but it will likely take a 6-0 run coupled with favorable luck for them to pull off a miracle playoff berth. They have played the role of spoiler effectively of late though, and are favored to do so again tonight.
Read below as we preview the latest NHL odds and break down my Flyers vs. Sabres pick and prediction.
The Flyers have lost their way throughout their current five game losing streak, allowing 4.60 goals against per game. That includes 13 goals against over the last three games, which have come against a soft schedule of opponents in the Blackhawks, Canadiens and Islanders.
Over the entirety of the season, the Flyers own the leagues sixth best xGA/60 of 2.96. Over the last 10 games they still have been far better than average defensively, analytically speaking, with an xGA/60 of 3.02.
John Tortorella has called his team out every which way ahead of this game. Whether they entirely clean it up defensively or not though, they do appear due for better puck-luck in terms of goals against.
The most interesting storyline surrounding this game is the fact that Ivan Fedotov is set to make his first career start. Fedotov has at times been one of the best goaltenders in the KHL, and it is realistic to think he can be a difference maker at the NHL level this season.
He stopped 19 of 21 shots faced versus the Islanders on Tuesday, but that was a solid outcome given the quality of those chances.
Flyers Captain Sean Couturier will be sidelined for this matchup.
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The Sabres have played to a 21-16-1 record since the start of 2024. That would have been enough to earn the final playoff spot if they weren't already so far behind in the race after the first third of season. It seems to be falling a little under the radar how respectably the Sabres have been playing for a fairly lengthy sample, and oddsmakers are giving them respect with tonight's -125 price tag.
They were visibly dominant in recent wins over New Jersey and Washington during this homestand, and played well in a tough spot versus the Leafs on Saturday.
Rasmus Dahlin has trended into much better form, and is playing like a true number one defender once again. Owen Power has also picked up his level, and Bo Byram has been a solid addition since the deadline.
Still, the Sabres own an xGF% of just 45.5% since January 1. Owning the fifth highest save percentage in the league during that time (.912) has been the greatest factor in their success, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen definitely deserves his roses for keeping this team in the picture.
Luukkonen has played to a +7.9 GSAx and .910 save percentage across 49 appearances.
The Sabres rank 16th in goals for per game this season, and their recent chance creation does not suggest a turnaround is on the horizon. They have generated only 2.87 xGF/60 since the All-Star Break, which ranks 27th in the league.
Flyers vs. Sabres
Betting Pick & Prediction
It seems crazy to think the Sabres have trended back to being worthy of a -125 price tag versus the Flyers, and I do believe Buffalo is a touch overvalued in this matchup. Not quite enough to lay a bet on a side at this point though.
Buffalo has proven to be a legitimate defensive side, and continues to get strong goaltending from Luukkonen. In what will be a playoff type atmosphere, we should see them lean on those strengths to make this a competitive contest.
The Flyers have allowed lots of goals over their five game losing streak, and their defensive upside has legitimately tailed off since losing Sean Walker. Still, we know defensive accountability from John Tortorella's side has been their greatest strength all season long.
We should expect the Flyers to make it tough to generate quality chances, and I'm willing to bet that Fedotov will make the saves he is supposed to.
FanDuel is offering under 6.5 at -132, and that is worthy of a bet in this crucial showdown.
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