Bills vs Eagles Prediction, Odds | NFL Week 12 Betting Pick
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Bills vs Eagles Odds, Prediction
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
Bills vs Eagles odds have Philadelphia installed as 2.5-point favorites on the spread with a game total of 48.5, which is the highest of Week 12. My NFL pick for this matchup is on the spread, which had Philadelphia listed at -3 before moving to -2.5 before kickoff due to Lane Johnson (groin) being listed as inactive.
Buffalo (6-5) avoided a three-game losing streak with a blowout 32-6 win at home against Zach Wilson and the Jets last week. The Bills offense used some new wrinkles and played closer to their underlying numbers under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The Eagles (9-1) won the most-watched game of the NFL season last Monday night in Kansas City, 21-17, despite being out- gained and trailing by 10 at the half.
Find out which side I'm on below, where you'll find a Bills vs Eagles prediction.
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Bills vs Eagles Pick
If you just do a season-long statistical comparison between the Bills and Eagles, Buffalo has the advantage in many key play-to-play categories.
Buffalo has the better rushing and passing success rate on offense. Josh Allen has a lower turnover-worthy play rate than Jalen Hurts. The Bills offense has been better from an EPA per play perspective, they've just had a lot more high-leverage turnovers in the worst spots to swing close games against them.
The Bills offense spread out the Jets defense a ton last week and let Allen cook. In the past three meetings with the Jets, New York sacked him 13 times. He had failed to top six yards per attempt in each of the last four meetings, too. The results on Sunday were considerably better as the Jets managed just one sack and Allen averaged 8.6 yards per attempt.
Monday night was a massive win for Philadelphia to stay ahead of Dallas and San Francisco at the top of the NFC standings, but it was the second time in three weeks the Eagles won a one-score game against a similar-caliber opponent despite being outplayed in the box score.
Both Dallas and Kansas City outgained them and had multiple attempts to put the Eagles away before red-zone turnovers and a critical drop did them in.
Bet Buffalo vs. Philadelphia at FanDuel
The biggest concern with Philadelphia right now is the quality of the secondary. The Eagles held Kansas City scoreless in the second half, but both Darius Slay and James Bradberry rank in the bottom-15th percentile in separation allowed in coverage this season.
The Eagles made bets on a bunch of younger corners to back fill the rest of the corner slots now that Avonte Maddox is out for the season, and they've been largely mediocre as well.
PFF grades the Eagles as a below-average coverage unit overall and while Kevin Byard is a solid addition at safety, tight ends have still had a lot of success. The Eagles grade out as a bottom-five defense against tight ends, which could be a problem if the Bills split Dalton Kincaid out wide and spread out the Eagles.
There was hope that the bye week would help Hurts be healthier last week and run more effectively in Kansas City, but that wasn't really the case.
The brotherly shove sneak play is still the best short-yardage play in football by a wide margin, but he's not nearly as effective as a pure runner or scrambler.
Without Dallas Goedert, the Eagles are heavily reliant on wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. New coordinator Brian Johnson's play-calling and sequencing has come under scrutiny as well, but it's more down to the limitations of the weapons and quarterback right now that is tying his hands.
Bills vs. Eagles
Betting Picks & Predictions
Conventional wisdom would tell you that a nine-win team at home should be laying more than a field goal against a six-win team in late November. But the Eagles are 6-1 in one score games and Buffalo is 2-5. The Bills and Eagles have played relatively similar schedules, yet the Eagles have a +61 point differential and the Bills are +104.
It's true that the Bills have had some issues in close games for more than a year now, but they've upgraded at offensive coordinator and are no worse than the Eagles on a neutral field for me.
As long as you can get +3, I'd bet the Bills and expect yet another close game for Philadelphia. The market is also still too high on the quality of the Eagles secondary and Buffalo should surpass those expectations offensively.
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