New Mexico State vs Auburn Prediction, Pick: A Contrarian Over/Under Pick
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Auburn’s Payton Thorne.
New Mexico State vs Auburn Prediction, Pick
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+25.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +1100 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-25.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -2500 |
Let's head out to Auburn, where Hugh Freeze's Tigers will host Jerry Kill's New Mexico State Aggies.
The Tigers are big favorites in this game, but let's see if we can uncover some betting value. Continue reading for my New Mexico State vs. Auburn Prediction, Pick.
Hand up, I've been totally against the Aggies all season. However, I can't argue against their 7-2 record, as Kill has done a phenomenal job with this program.
The Aggies were unquestionably a laughingstock over the past decade or so, and to have a complete turn-around like this is truly remarkable.
Digging into these numbers, I have to say I'm impressed. The Aggies are top-six in the nation in Offensive Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate. It's been ugly at times, but the hype is very real as the Aggies are top-50 in Havoc Allowed, Finishing Drives and Quality Drives.
Those are encouraging stats going against an SEC defense, but all of it is contingent on Diego Pavia's health.
Pavia is completing 60% of his passes with 19 touchdowns and six interceptions on the year. Of course, this has all of the makings for a blowout if Pavia isn't available.
Defensively, I have a few big concerns in this matchup. The defensive trench hasn't been great as the Aggies are in the bottom 40 in both Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate.
Why is that a huge issue? The Tigers generate all of their offense on the ground, so this game could quickly get out of hand if Auburn can break multiple explosive runs.
The rest of the Aggies' defense isn't so bad, but Auburn is 12th in rush rate and likely won't need to pass much in this game.
If Pavia plays, it's very possible he can keep the Aggies within striking distance and the backdoor will definitely be open late as the Tigers will likely pull their starters early with Alabama looming next week.
It was shocking to see how dominant the Tigers looked in last week's 48-10 win over Arkansas. Auburn ran for 354 total yards and is primed for another great game on the ground in this matchup.
It's clear Hugh Freeze doesn't trust quarterback Payton Thorne to throw the ball down the field. Additionally, Thorne has been rotating snaps with Robby Ashford for most of the season.
Ashford isn't known for his arm either and usually enters the game to run the ball. I expect Thorne to get the start, but I doubt he does much passing.
The Tigers are 86th in Passing Success Rate and an alarming 108th in Havoc Allowed. If the Aggies can contain Auburn's rushing attack, the Tigers could find themselves in trouble in third-and-long situations.
Regardless, I'm not too concerned about the offense's ability to move the ball in this matchup.
Defensively, this group is set up to dominate in the trench. This is a CUSA vs. SEC matchup, so I expect a huge talent discrepancy.
The Aggies' offensive numbers have been impressive, but the Tigers are 20th in Defensive Pass Success Rate, 11th in PFF coverage grading and 33rd in PFF tackle grading.
Even with a healthy Pavia, the Aggies' receivers are going to struggle to get separation. I also think it's being overlooked that Pavia likely won't be 100% mobile and Auburn's pass rushers could be on top of him all afternoon.
Auburn's defense held Arkansas to 10 points last week and could dominate again this week.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico State and Auburn match up statistically:
New Mexico State Offense vs. Auburn Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 6 | 52 | |
| Line Yards | 4 | 40 | |
| Pass Success | 52 | 20 | |
| Havoc | 47 | 37 | |
| Finishing Drives | 39 | 49 | |
| Quality Drives | 34 | 29 |
Auburn Offense vs. New Mexico State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 14 | 99 | |
| Line Yards | 74 | 82 | |
| Pass Success | 86 | 45 | |
| Havoc | 108 | 42 | |
| Finishing Drives | 52 | 61 | |
| Quality Drives | 72 | 45 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 120 | 31 |
| PFF Coverage | 85 | 11 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 23 | 33 |
| Middle 8 | 52 | 1 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.7 (128) | 27.6 (79) |
| Rush Rate | 58.2% (27) | 63.2% (12) |
New Mexico State vs Auburn
Betting Pick & Prediction
The best play in this game is the under. It's definitely a contrarian pick, but the 48.5 is very appetizing.
I believe the Tigers will be able to establish methodical drives on the ground, which should bleed the clock. The Aggies also operate the fifth-slowest offense in the country.
The Tigers essentially have their Super Bowl next weekend when they play Alabama in the Iron Bowl, so their mentality should be to get up big and sit on the ball.
Pick: Under 48.5 (Play to 45.5)
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