Ravens vs Chargers Anytime Touchdown Props: SNF Bet for Odell Beckham Jr.
Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Odell Beckham Jr.
He's dealt with shoulder issues recently, but Beckham has been one of Lamar Jackson's trusted targets.
He has two touchdowns in the last three games and could see a bump in targets in the red zone with star Mark Andrews out for the season. The loss of Andrews could be huge for Beckham because the wideout was grading well with Andrews off the field.
After Andrews got hurt, Beckham saw almost 40% of First-Read Targets. For the season, Beckham has also seen an uptick in targets per route run and yards per route run with Andrews on the sidelines.
The next piece of positive news is this Chargers pass defense is so bad, they can make almost any average quarterback look like a Pro Bowler. The Chargers are 26th in DVOA to the pass and now they’ve got to deal with Jackson, who’s averaging a career-high in accuracy (69.5%) and yards per pass completion (8.1).
I bet this earlier in the week at +375 — the best number available as of 6:24 p.m. ET Sunday is +300 on FanDuel.
Why I'm Not Betting Any Chargers Players
I think very highly of Justin Herbert and the idea of an explosive Chargers offense, but this isn’t the game to be wagering a lot on Los Angeles TD scorers.
The Ravens are tied with the Browns for first in passing TDs allowed and also rank third in passing yards allowed. Another issue is how the Chargers have fared when matched up with an elite defense. Needless to say, it hasn’t yielded the returns you’d hope.
Against top pass defenses — like the Chiefs, Jets and Cowboys (each rank in top five in pass defense DVOA) — the Chargers were only able to muster three total passing touchdowns. The Ravens rank ahead of those three in pass defense DVOA (second).
For what it’s worth, two of those three scores were to Gerald Everett, who’s ATD odds range from +280 to +333. Those odds should be closer to +450, so not exactly fair value.
The final reason is the pace of the game. The Ravens are one of the most run-heavy teams — their 32.4 rush attempts per game rank second in the NFL — and will likely bleed the clock as much as possible to keep Herbert off the field.
I considered doing a half-unit bet on both Quentin Johnson (+450) and Jalen Guyton (+475), but both have detriments I can’t overlook. Johnson is still a rookie and only has one TD in eight games since Mike Williams was injured. Guyton missed Week 11 with a groin injury and is also coming back from a lengthy injury stint. It’s hard to trust either at this stage.
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