Ravens vs Chargers Odds, Prediction | NFL Sunday Night Football Pick

Ravens vs Chargers Odds, Prediction | NFL Sunday Night Football Pick article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Jackson (left) and Justin Herbert (right).

Ravens vs Chargers Odds, Prediction | NFL Sunday Night Football

Sunday, Nov. 26
8:20 p.m. ET
Ravens Odds
Point SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
-110o / -110u
Chargers Odds
Point SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
-110o / -110u
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Ravens vs Chargers odds for Sunday Night Football have Baltimore installed as 3-point favorites on the spread with a game total over/under of 48.5 or 49, depending on the sportsbook. The latter is key to my Ravens vs Chargers prediction for SNF at SoFi Stadium.

If the NFL regular season ended after Week 11, the Ravens would have been the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. The race for that top spot should be a photo finish with the Dolphins, Chiefs and Bills all right on Baltimore's heels, making every game from here on out extremely critical for John Harbaugh's squad.

On the injury front, the Ravens will be without star tight end Mark Andrews and cornerback Marlon Humphrey, but they will have WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers.

Meanwhile, the Chargers have once again failed to live up to preseason expectations, sitting squarely on the outside looking in of the AFC playoff picture. Entering Week 12, they had about a 15% chance of making the postseason, which makes this home game a must win for Brandon Staley's bunch. It'll be a tall task given the Chargers lost Joey Bosa to injury in Week 11.

A win on Sunday night with plus matchups looming against the Patriots, Broncos and Raiders would serve as a realistic path for Los Angeles to get to 8-6 and right back in the playoff mix. However, a loss on Sunday Night Football would likely all but end the Chargers' postseason hopes and really get the coaching rumors flowing on the West Coast.

Can the Chargers keep their season alive, or will the Ravens maintain their position atop the AFC? Let's take a closer look at the SNF matchup before getting into my Ravens vs Chargers pick.

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Ravens vs Chargers Prediction

Sunday, Nov 26
8:20 p.m. ET
Ravens vs Chargers Pick: Over 48 (-114)

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Ravens vs. Chargers

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Ravens and Chargers match up statistically:

Ravens vs. Chargers DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA429
Pass DVOA826
Rush DVOA126
Overall DVOA82
Pass DVOA52
Rush DVOA247

Let's start with the injury reports.

Baltimore has six players who are officially listed as questionable, most notably wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. (shoulder) and Zay Flowers (hip), in addition to backup tight end Charlie Kolar (illness) and tackle Ronnie Stanley (knee). However, Flowers and Stanley both stated they will play on Sunday night.

Meanwhile, Beckham said he'd be a game-time decision, although he did practice in full on Friday. I'd say the injury situation looks a lot better on this side of the ball than it did mid-week sans Mark Andrews, who will miss a significant amount of time, if not the entire season.

In regards to Los Angeles, the injury report is much shorter with the key names to watch being wide receiver Jalen Guyton and tight end Gerald Everett.

I'd be most concerned with Baltimore stud cornerback Marlon Humphrey, who was limited all week. Baltimore will also be without a few depth pieces at linebacker, but without Humphrey, the cornerback group thins out in a hurry.

The Ravens have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they've certainly benefited from a number of favorable quarterback matchups (and favorable weather conditions) throughout the season, which have certainly inflated their pass defense metrics.

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Let's take a walk through their schedule and look at the quarterbacks they have faced:

  • Beat C.J. Stroud in his first career start behind an offensive line full of backups.
  • Beat completely hampered (and still out of rhythm) Joe Burrow.
  • Lost to Gardner Minshew.
  • Beat Dorian Thompson-Robinson in his first career start.
  • Lost to Kenny Pickett.
  • Won in London vs. Ryan Tannehill and then Malik Willis.
  • Destroyed Jared Goff outdoors.
  • Took care of business against Joshua Dobbs and the Cardinals.
  • Blew out Geno Smith, who struggles with everything the Ravens run on defense.
  • Lost to a hampered Deshaun Watson.
  • Beat Burrow (who got hurt) and Jake Browning in his first real NFL action.

That's an extremely fortunate run of opposing quarterbacks. And now potentially without their top cornerback, Justin Herbert can certainly take advantage.

Bet Baltimore vs. Los Angeles at FanDuel

Conversely, there's been nothing pretty about the Chargers defense, especially against the pass where they have blown more coverages than any team.

On the season, the Chargers rank 27th in Pass Success Rate and 26th in EPA per Drop Back.  From a surface-statistics perspective, L.A. is one of only three teams to allow at least 7.5 yards per attempt and ranks dead last in passing yards per game at a whopping 292 — 20 yards more than the second-worst team through 11 weeks.

Those numbers look even worse if you exclude games against the Raiders, Packers, Jets and Bears (with Tyson Bagent). In the Chargers' other six games — against the the Titans, Dolphins, Chiefs, Vikings, Cowboys and Lions — they allowed an average of 29.8 points per game, with five of the six getting to at least the 24-point mark and half to eclipse 30.

That spells trouble when they step up in class again against a Ravens offense that has hit its stride in a new scheme under first-year offensive coordinator Todd Monken.

Keep in mind the Chargers also lost Joey Bosa to injury, which really hurts off the edge.

Ravens vs. Chargers

Betting Picks & Predictions

From a side perspective, Chargers home games are tough since they have such a minuscule home-field advantage, but it's hard not to at least be tempted by Justin Herbert catching over a field goal.

Herbert owns a sparkling 10-2 ATS (83.3%) record when catching over a field goal in his career, covering by an average margin of 2.5 points per game. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson is just 20-29 (40.8%) as a favorite of more than a field goal.

I expect both teams to employ game plans with heavier pass volume than usual based on their respective matchups. Ultimately, it's hard to envision the Ravens not getting to 24 points at the minimum — with 27-30 a much more likely range — especially since Jackson has shredded against zone coverage, which the Chargers utilize at a high frequency.

Meanwhile, I believe the Chargers can keep up against a defense that is a bit overrated in the market based on the extremely fortunate schedule of opposing offenses faced. Therefore, I expect a rare primetime shootout and like the over up to 48.

Pick: Over 48 (-114; BetRivers)

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