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Today
Dodgers over 3.5 runs F7 innings-120
1.2u
Dodgers are 16/24 on this line at home this season, and only have missed in B2B games once. Montas has been very inconsistent, and Betts, Ohtani Hernandez and Smith have all had success against him - and he’s been struggling vs lefties, so I like it for Freeman, Lux and Heyward.
15
2-WAY PARLAY+108
1u
12/14 righty starting pitchers under this line in Miami - and the L9 haven’t even touched 5 Ks. Sevy under in 5/8 with a CSW% of 25.2% (112/131 pitchers with 30+ IP).
Crawford over in all 9 starts (5+ in 8/9). Better vs lefties (27.6% K%), and he should see 4-5 of them. Cardinals pretty consistently with an above avg K% vs righties this season.
L.Severino u5.5 Ks-151
NYM
@
MIA
05/18 8:10 PM
K.Crawford o3.5 Ks-400
BOS
@
STL
05/18 11:15 PM
9
A.Heaney u16.5 Outs-110
LAA
9
3
TEX
1u
FINAL 5/18
Heaney is under this line in 5/8 starts. 3.9 pitches per PA matches up nicely for the under with the Angels who are at 3.94. Heaney has also really struggled the third time through the order (opps are 9/25 with a .854 OPS), and the Rangers bullpen is incredibly rested. Lefty starters are under this line in 5/7 games vs LAA, with a collective 6.36 ERA and 44 H + 10 BB in 35.1 IP.
43
J.Hart o31.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115
NYK
103
116
IND
1.15u
FINAL 5/18
Hart has cleared this line in 4/5 games this series (and 8/11 in the playoffs), with the one miss being the game where the Pacers blew the Knicks out. That was a game where Brunson did look 100%, and the Pacers were able to guard him 1 on 1 the most part.
After Brunson’s elite performance in game 5, the Pacers will inevitably be more aggressive with their coverage/double teams. Whether that means Siakam doubling or rotating off Turner’s double, Hart will be left open in this one, since the Pacers won’t help off DDV. Whether it’s catch and shoot opportunities or drives, I see Hart with another 14ish shot attempts and 10 potential assists.
And you can bet another emphasis for Indy will be boxing out Hartenstein on the offensive glass - I like Hart to grab a few more oREB in this one.
87
M.Turner u26.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115
NYK
103
116
IND
1.15u
FINAL 5/18
Over his last 56 mins of floor time, Turner has taken only 7 2P shots (and only 4 within 8 feet). The Knicks have stayed close to him on the PnR, almost daring Hali to finish at the bucket. And with the Knicks going small last game, Turner was used more to clear out so the Pacers could try to exploit Siakam vs Hart in the post.
Turner is very capable at hitting his threes, but even if he shoots slightly above avg, I don’t see him getting enough volume.
He’s also been terrible on the boards, and there is a world where Jackson gets more mins to solidify the Pacers rebounding.
Under in 3/5 this series.
47
Pending
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) to record the win-115
1.15u
Going to double up on Glasnow tonight - love the matchup. Reds don’t hit power pitchers well at all (34% K%, and a .637 OPS). Reds also going with a bullpen day: Brent Suter and Nick Martinez (on 3 days rest). Both are righties, and the Dodgers mash righties at home: 142 wRC+ and a .833 OPS. Dodgers are -360 on the F5 line, and have a bullpen advantage as well.
35
Yankees over 3.5 F7 team total-125
1.25u
Yankees are swinging a hot bat: 145 wRC+, .847 OPS, .197 ISO over the L2 weeks vs righties (all lead baseball). And have been great at home vs righties all season: 130 wRC+, .777 OPS. .184 ISO. Now they get a replacement level pitcher (Clevinger) and a bottom barrel bullpen.
24
Z.Gallen o5.5 Ks+105
DET
@
ARI
1u
05/19 12:10 AM
Over in 5/8, but notably got his velocity back on track last start. Tigers at 26% K% vs righties over the L2 weeks. Gallen has traditionally dealt at home, and he’s making his first start back in Arizona after 4 straight on the road.
21
Futures
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2-1-0 | 67% | 0.92u |
| Last 7 Days | 16-15-0 | 52% | 1.16u |
| Last 30 Days | 75-87-1 | 46% | -19.15u |
| All Time | 2110-1907-36 | 52% | 39.49u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 344-266-1 | 56% | 54.49u |
| NCAAB | 336-245-4 | 57% | 51.64u |
| NCAAF | 43-37-1 | 53% | 0.57u |
| MLB | 648-642-12 | 50% | -22.32u |
| NBA | 739-715-18 | 50% | -42.60u |
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DeAndre Hopkins catching a Hail Mary while being triple-teamed to cash his reception prop.
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Too many worst beats to count, but losing a Josh Allen rushing attempts prop by one because the Bills sent out Trubisky to kneel it out really stands out.
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