49ers vs Chiefs Prop: Unique Yardage Bet for 2024 Super Bowl
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 20: Nick Bosa #97 of the San Francisco 49ers reacts during the NFC Divisional Playoffs against the Green Bay Packers at Levi’s Stadium on January 20, 2024 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
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49ers vs Chiefs Prop: Unique Yardage Bet for 2024 Super Bowl
For my favorite bet of the Super Bowl, I’m diverting from betting on a specific player, and shifting the focus to a game prop.
On the surface, this line feels inflated. 49ers regular season games have averaged 709.5 yards, while Chiefs games averaged 647.8.
Including the postseason (but excluding each team’s Week 18 game), 49ers games stayed under this line in 10 of 18 games, while Chiefs contests were 14 of 19 to the under.
But beyond the raw numbers, this line seems to be underestimating both the strength of each defense, and the pace of the offenses.
Both offenses were amongst the slower paced units in the regular season, with the 49ers averaging 30.7 seconds per play (most in the NFL), and the Chiefs at 28.8 seconds (14th).
And both squads’ opponents opted to play very slow. Per Roto Viz, 49ers and Chiefs’ foes ran their offenses at the fifth and sixth slowest paces, respectively.
Intuitively, it makes sense, with teams looking to keep the ball out of the hands of these high powered offenses. I see that happening today, especially in the first half.
I have the total yardage today projected just shy of 700 net yards. I’d play this line down to under 707.5.
Pick: Total Net Yards in Game – Under 717.5 (-115)
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