NBA Player Prop Picks Tonight: Jalen Suggs, Darius Garland

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NBA Player Prop Picks Tonight: Jalen Suggs, Darius Garland

I’ve been hot and cold on Suggs this season, but with this being a massive game for both teams, I see some upside on the third-year pro tonight.

Suggs generates his points as a spot-up shooter (4 points per game) and in transition (3.4). The Sixers rank 20th and 21st, respectively, against each play type. When Suggs has played at least 24 minutes this season, he’s cleared this line in 13-of-18 games against teams ranking in the bottom 15 of both play types.

The minutes should be there for Suggs as he's Orlando’s best bet to slow down Tyrese Maxey on the perimeter. The Gonzaga alum has dropped 16 and 20 points against Philadelphia this season.

There’s even more upside to this play, with the uncertain status of Franz Wagner, who's questionable with a right ankle sprain.

Cavaliers vs. Pacers is another game with playoff ramifications as both teams look to solidify seeding in the Eastern Conference and avoid the Play-In Tournament.

With Donovan Mitchell back in the fold, the Cavs' starting lineup is finally whole. When Mitchell, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley have suited up, Darius Garland has stayed under this line in 20-of-27 games (averaging 15.9 points in those contests).

When playing with Mitchell, Garland’s usage rate dips by 3%. I expect Mitchell to dominate the ball in this one, with the Cavaliers' playoff seeding in the balance.

It’s also not an ideal spot for Garland on the scoring front. The above-the-break 3-pointer is Garland’s most attempted shot (consisting of 31% of his points and 35% of his field-goal attempts), and the Pacers allow the fewest made buckets from that zone in the NBA.

Overall, I see this line of 19.5 as a few points too high. I have Garland projected at 16 points.

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