Champions League Round of 16: Can Dortmund Overcome a 3-0 Deficit Against Tottenham?

Tottenham won the opening leg at home against Dortmund, 3-0, and are now in a commanding position to advance at -1500 odds.

There have been seven Champions League instances with a team taking a 3-0 win into the second leg on the road, and all seven of those teams advanced.

Wednesday's second leg match in Dortmund begins at 3 p.m. ET and will be available on Galavision, B/R Live and fuboTV.

Odds (Tottenham lead 3-0)

Dortmund hold a slight advantage to win the second leg at home, and bettors have also been taking a chance on them to make the quarterfinal, moving the odds from +1000 to +800.

They will try to become the first UCL team to qualify after losing the first leg on the road by a 3-0 scoreline.

In order to automatically advance, Dortmund would need to win by at least four goals. A 3-0 win by Dortmund would send the game to extra time, while any other 3-goal victory (i.e. 4-1, 5-2) would see Spurs advance based on away goals.

Injuries + Suspensions

• Dortmund: Lukasz Piszczek (doubtful, knee)
• Tottenham: Harry Winks (questionable, hip), Eric Dier (questionable, illness), Dele Alli (out, thigh), Kieran Trippier (out, undisclosed)

Betting Market Breakdown

Both clubs have really struggled recently in domestic competition: Dortmund have completely blown a lead at the top of the Bundesliga table to Bayern Munich, and Tottenham have fallen well off the pace in the EPL following two straight losses and a draw.

Fortunately, those results have zero meaning for what's at stake in the Champions League.

Tottenham closed with 65% of bets in the opening leg and Spurs are even more popular for the return leg in Dortmund.

Spurs have attracted more than 80% of tickets as +275 underdogs, yet odds have hardly budged since opening three weeks ago. The market seems to be content on where the current odds sit, though that almost always changes in the last few hours to kickoff.

I'm fairly surprised to see all the early love for Spurs since public bettors usually like taking home favorites that have to win.

Such is not the case here, and instead they're hoping to earn a big payout at +275 with another outright victory. Right now Dortmund are rare contrarian home favorites at +100 odds.

While the moneyline hasn't moved, over/under action has forced oddsmakers to adjust the juice on 3 goals from u-115 to o-112. This move was expected considering that 85% of bets have been on the over and Dortmund will need to attack from that start.

I'm not as optimistic in Dortmund completely overturning a 3-0 deficit, but I believe they win this match more than 50% of the time and will be betting them at +100 odds to win the second leg.

Tottenham currently hold the eighth-best odds to win the Champions League at +1600 odds, while Dortmund are 150-1 longshots to pull off the miracle.

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