49ers vs Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Picks | Super Bowl TD Scorer Bets
Getty Images. Pictured: Travis Kelce.
49ers vs Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Picks | Super Bowl TD Scorer Bets
Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle to be exploited, whether it's the spread, total, or player props. That definitely applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorer (ATD) market.
Each week this season, I’ve gone through every game on the slate and identified players you should be considering in the ATD market based on the betting odds.
Let's dive into my Super Bowl Anytime Touchdown picks and 49ers vs Chiefs TD bets.
Anytime Touchdown Picks
| Picks |
|---|
| 49ers Anytime Touchdown Picks |
| Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Picks |
Any discussion about 49ers Anytime TD scorers has to start with Christian McCaffrey.
Not only has he scored four TDs in the playoffs, but his snap rate has been insane — over 90% in both games. To put that in perspective, he was averaging about 78% of snaps during the regular season.
McCaffrey should see at least 2-3 goal-line carries. At -200, this could be viewed as a “safe” bet, but if I’m betting on him, I’m going with a First-Half TD at +125. In 18 games this season (playoffs included), he’s scored in 15 of them. In those 15 games, he scored in the first half 13 times.
McCaffrey aside, my favorite Anytime TD bet on the 49ers side is Deebo Samuel at +180. The ultimate weapon for the Niners, Samuel had 12 TDs this season (seven receiving and five rushing).
Samuel had injury concerns entering the NFC title game, but he looked like his usual self with eight catches and 89 yards. He also had three rushing attempts. At +180, this feels like a steal given he’ll have two extra weeks to heal his shoulder.
Considering that the Chiefs playing man defense at a top-five rate, I could also make a case for Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. The duo has thrived against man coverage, with each scoring three times against this type of coverage. If the Chiefs were to play more zone, Aiyuk has the edge over Kittle, though the latter led the Niners in TDs vs. zone.
With both priced at +175, I wouldn’t knock either option. If I had to choose one, however, I’d opt for Kittle mainly because Chiefs CBs Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed are tough assignments for Aiyuk. Kittle, meanwhile, gets to face a Chiefs linebacker corps that didn't have a single player rank inside the top 50 in coverage this season.
For Niners long-shot TD bets, I typically gravitate to Kyle Juszczyk (+1000). Juice nearly scored against Detroit and the Chiefs' run defense has been their weak point throughout the season. He also played over 50% of snaps during the season and is All-Pro at his position.
For what it’s worth, he scored against the Chiefs when they played in the Super Bowl four years ago. Does that mean he’ll score again this time? Obviously not, but at these odds, I’m willing to find out.
Verdict: Bet Deebo Samuel (+180; FanDuel); Christian McCaffrey First Half TD (+135; DraftKings); Sprinkle Kyle Juszczyk (+1000; BetMGM).
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Naturally, the Anytime TD discussion for Kansas City has to start with Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco. Each has its own playoff pedigree for TDs — Kelce has 17 TDs in 16 playoff games since 2019 while Pacheco is riding a four-game postseason streak with a score.
Pacheco may have the “easier” matchup as teams have had success running the football on the 49ers. San Francisco allowed 182 rushing yards and three rushing scores to the Lions in the NFC Championship Game. This after Aaron Jones was able to top 100 rushing yards in the Divisional Round.
The respect given to Pacheco by oddsmakers is fascinating because, at -120, this is a far cry from the average ATD odds RB1s had when facing the 49ers in the regular season (+165). Even in the NFC Championship Game, we saw David Montgomery at +160 and Jahmyr Gibbs at +145 while Pacheco was +135 in the AFC Championship game against Baltimore. I won't be betting on Pacheco at minus odds.
As for Kelce, I don’t love him at +100. I’m not going to tell you not to bet him, but I would ask you to look a bit deeper and consider another option. Perhaps a Kelce firs-half TD at +260, or even a Kelce First Chiefs TD at +330. He’s scored the Chiefs' first TD in five of their last seven playoff games, with each of them coming in the first half. The former gives you a bit more security in case of randomness on the K.C. side, but I’d rather take the latter for better odds.
Once you get past Pacheco and Kelce — and WR Rashee Rice at +140 — all Chiefs TD scorers odds take a jump with Patrick Mahomes next in line at +400.
We know Mahomes is capable of scoring on the ground and he did rush for a TD against the Niners in the 2019 Super Bowl. Still, that’s not nearly enough data to feel good about betting him at these odds. If you want to sprinkle a Mahomes First TD at +2000, sure, have some fun, but don’t be shocked if he doesn’t use his legs in the red zone.
For a long-shot Chiefs bet, I’m digging Richie James at +1100 considering that I targeted speedy slot receivers against the Niners during the regular season. While James only plays a handful of snaps, he has been lining up in the slot just over 50% of the time. There’s too much uncertainty surrounding Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore, not to mention Mecole Hardman Jr.'s yips, so I'm taking a flier on James.
Verdict: Travis Kelce First Chiefs TD Scorer (+330); sprinkle Richie James (+1100; DraftKings).
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