Super Bowl Best Bets, Odds: 10 Best 49ers vs Chiefs Bets Today
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Super Bowl Best Bets, Odds: 10 Best 49ers vs Chiefs Bets Today
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Welcome to our Super Bowl best bets, featuring our 10 best 49ers vs Chiefs bets and the latest Super Bowl odds.
We have experts on both sides of the Super Bowl 58 spread, which is now 49ers -2 or 49ers -1.5 across the board, with the Chiefs no longer available at +2.5 as of Sunday morning. We also have best bet picks on player props for Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco and more.
Get all of our Super Bowl best bets below for 49ers vs Chiefs.
Super Bowl Odds | 49ers vs Chiefs
By Simon Hunter
At the end of the day, it’s been very profitable taking Patrick Mahomes at anything less than a -2.5 favorite (he's 17-3 against that spread for his career), and you may have heard that he's 10-1 as an underdog. It’s hard to pass on this number.
I can see this being a close game and once it gets to the fourth quarter, the 49ers will make mistakes. Unless Mahomes is playing hurt, we back him as an underdog with Andy Reid as his coach and Steve Spagnuolo manning the defense.
I'd take the alternate spread of Chiefs -2.5 at +130 if you like to party.
Simon isn't our only top NFL betting expert taking the Chiefs to cover, as Chris Raybon has a full betting card for Chiefs vs 49ers in Super Bowl 58 in his Super Bowl Picks: Expert’s Best 49ers vs Chiefs Bets.
The wrong team is favored in the Super Bowl.
Patrick Mahomes is No. 1 all time in the postseason in passer rating, yards per game, winning percentage, completion percentage and touchdown-to-interception ratio. With that said, he isn't the reason I'm picking the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have the better defense in just about any metric you look at, and if they get the lead, their defense has proven to be nearly impenetrable in the second half of games. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan won't be able to consistently stick with the running game when trailing by one or two possessions. Once he hands the keys over to Brock Purdy, it won't be pretty.
The Chiefs defense is on another level compared to the 49ers' last two opponents — the Lions and Packers. The 49ers defense is vastly overrated and the Lions moved the ball against them at will. If not for a lost fumble and a couple of dropped passes, Detroit would have comfortably beaten the 49ers.
I don't expect the Niners defense to get many stops early in this game. Once they fall behind, it will be too late. Eventually, Purdy will make a mistake and the Chiefs defense will secure a rather easy victory.
I'd play this alt line down to +230.
Pick: Chiefs -6.5 (+255)
San Francisco has been the better team all season and Kyle Shanahan has built the more reliable offense.
Whether it’s rushing or passing, the 49ers are much more explosive and efficient offensively. All credit goes to defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo for shutting down Baltimore and to Patrick Mahomes for carrying the Chiefs' laborious offense in these playoffs, but it’s time for Shanahan to get his deserved Super Bowl.
The 49ers will hit a few more explosives, they’ll lock down defensively in the red zone and win a close game that features plenty of long drives.
My way-too-specific prediction: San Francisco will be up four and driving late to ice the game, but will come to a fourth-and-medium decision. Shanahan will opt to kick the relatively long field goal, which will be missed by Jake Moody, opening the door for Mahomes to engineer the winning touchdown drive.
Much like the Chiefs have struggled to score in the second half all season, though, he’ll come up short.
Pick: 49ers -1.5 | Play to -2
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You can find Patrick Mahomes' passing yards line anywhere from 260.5 to 263.5 yards. I would hit it the over at any number in this range.
While the 49ers defense is much easier to attack on the ground, the Chiefs are still going to be passing heavily. Mahomes has been passing at a massive clip pretty much all season, and while he's hit the under at this number in two of the Chiefs' three playoff games, I'm not particularly worried.
All three games have been played in rough weather, and he had 39 and 41 pass attempts in two of those contests. He's playing this game in a dome, and his receivers have really stepped it up in recent weeks with Kelce playing great, Rice becoming a huge threat, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling actually catching the ball.
I have Mahomes projected to go 20-plus yards over this number, making this a great EV bet. I would hit this line all the way to 270.5.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 260.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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By Ricky Henne
If it’s a big game, you can expect Mahomes to use his legs. The proof’s simply in the pudding. As a result, I’m taking several Mahomes rushing props, but the over on 4.5 attempts is my favorite.
Mahomes has eclipsed 4.5 rushing attempts in nine of his last 15 playoff games dating back to 2019. He ran the ball only twice in Kansas City’s Wild Card Game win over the Dolphins, but he carried it six times apiece in wins over the Bills and Ravens. Mahomes had at least five rushing attempts in all three of his previous Super Bowls, averaging 6.7 carries per game.
Finally, if you’re a believer that the Chiefs comes out on top like I do, we may very well get some Mahomes kneel downs to end the game. Either way, I like Mahomes to go over 4.5 attempts and would take this up to 5.5.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)
By Ricky Henne
It’s hard not to be excited about Isiah Pacheco after watching what the Packers and Lions did against San Francisco’s mediocre run defense.
Packers running backs averaged 5.6 yards per carry (YPC) and totaled 124 rushing yards as they carved San Francisco up in the Divisional Round. The Lions' one-two punch of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs followed suit, gashing San Francisco for 138 yards while averaging 5.1 YPC.
To their credit, the 49ers bucked up in the second half against Detroit. Still, they don’t elicit much faith. They ranked 15th in defensive rush DVOA during the regular season, but struggled against potent running teams while shutting down relatively weak ones.
Meanwhile, 67.5 rushing yards for Pacheco feels awfully low considering he routinely passes that number and doesn’t have much competition for touches. The Chiefs get Jerick McKinnon back, but he’s largely filled a pass-catcher role over his tenure with Kansas City. Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s gotten no more than a few token carries as Pacheco’s emerged as one of the league’s true bell-cow backs.
I love this number and matchup. Pacheco’s eclipsed 67.5 rushing yards in six straight starts in which he didn’t have to leave early due to injury, and seven of his last eight. I don’t see many reasons to think he won’t have the same level of success in the Super Bowl.
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By Jacob Wayne
Kyle "Juice" Juszczyk was a huge part of the 49ers' offensive game plan in the NFC Championship Game, playing 40 snaps — his highest since Week 3 — and running 17 routes, tied for his most of the season.
The Lions run a worse version of the Chiefs' defense — heavy blitzing and man coverage — and that led to Juice seeing some additional receiving opportunities with two catches for 33 yards. Juice has played the Chiefs three times as a member of the 49ers, and he's cleared this prop all three times, averaging 37 receiving yards per game.
The Chiefs live in nickel and dime personnel and I expect the 49ers to lean into their condensed formations with heavy personnel to combat that.
With Juice on the field plenty and leaking out for some downfield opportunities, I love his upside as a receiver in this game. I'd play this up to 6.5.
Pick: Kyle Juszczyk Over 4.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Over the last nine weeks, Rashee Rice has been a massive part of the Chiefs offense, putting up great numbers nearly every game. He's had a massive target share with nine-plus targets in seven of his last nine games.
While Rice has gone under 67.5 receiving yards in each of the last two games, those were tough matchups played in bad weather.
This game is being played in a dome, and the 49ers defense has been suspect in the second half of the season. I have Rice projected for almost 80 yards, making this a great over. I would hit this bet all the way to 73.5.
Pick: Rashee Rice Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
You may be surprised to learn that Noah Gray has been targeted three or more times in 55% of his games this season.
The third-year tight end has earned Patrick Mahomes' trust with just one drop on 41 targets during the regular season. And he’s coming off a five-target performance against the Ravens in which he was featured in both 12 personnel and some of the Chiefs' four and five wide receiver sets.
Gray's consistently played over 50% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps this season and he is a fixture in goal-to-go formations. He has two targets inside the 10-yard line already this postseason, and with all eyes on Travis Kelce, there’s a decent chance he sees at least one more on Sunday.
And let’s not discount the Andy Reid factor when the two-time Super Bowl-winning head coach has time to tinker in the play-calling lab. In last year's Super Bowl, Reid dialed up short touchdown throws to Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney. There isn’t a coach in the league who relishes red-zone wrinkles more than Reid, which is why I think at this price it’s well worth a shot on Gray becoming the beneficiary of a new play design.
Pick: Noah Gray Anytime Touchdown (+900)
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You can find this under "Quick Bets" on FanDuel.
This exact play would've hit in each of the last two playoff games, which is important because the first 10-15 plays are scripted, meaning the 49ers and Chiefs will be drawing up ways to get their playmakers the ball early and often.
I started looking into some fun novelty props, but kept coming back to this, so let's let it ride and see if we can get a win in the first quarter of the Super Bowl.
Nothing like having a little extra cash in case we see some live spots that we like.
Pick: Deebo Samuel & Travis Kelce both to record a reception on the first drive (+322)