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Travis Kelce Player Props: Super Bowl Pick for Chiefs TE

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Action Network Design Team. Pictured: Travis Kelce.

Travis Kelce Player Props: Super Bowl Pick for Chiefs TE

Sunday, Feb. 11
6:30 p.m. ET
CBS
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 32.5 First Half Receiving Yards (-114)

Travis Kelce has already cemented his legacy as one of the top tight ends in NFL history. He's also now one of the most popular athletes on Earth thanks to his relationship with Taylor Swift. This Sunday, playing for his third Super Bowl ring, Kelce figures to be a large part of Kansas City's passing attack, especially early on.

Throughout the playoffs, it has been obvious that getting Kelce going early has been part of the game plan. In three postseason games, Kelce has totaled 18 catches in the first half compared to just five in the second half.

This is a trend that carried over from the regular season. Kelce averaged 4.66 receptions for 56.9 yards this season in the first half while putting up just 3.07 receptions and 26.2 yards in the second half.

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Part of the reason for the major split is that the Chiefs have often played from ahead this season due to their stellar defense and haven't had to force the issue through the air. The other factor at play is that I believe this is built into Kansas City’s game plan coming into each week as it wants to get Kelce involved early.

In last year’s Super Bowl, Kelce had three catches for 60 yards and a touchdown after Kansas City's first two drives. He only put up an additional 21 yards the rest of the game.

The 49ers aren't a great matchup for tight ends, but they also haven’t had much of an advantage there this season. San Francisco ranked 22nd in receptions allowed to tight ends this season and 15th in yards allowed to the position.

San Francisco has struggled to cover tight ends since safety Talanoa Hufanga went down with a torn ACL in November. Since then, San Francisco has faced a couple teams with tight ends who play a large role in the passing game — the Niners haven't fared well.

In December, Trey McBride of the Cardinals went off for 102 yards and 10 catches. And we just saw Sam LaPorta put up nine catches for 97 yards in the NFC Championship Game.

Kelce has historically performed well against San Francisco’s defense, so I’m not worried about the potential of superstar linebacker Fred Warner playing spoiler. I could see the future Hall of Famer putting up similar numbers to McBride and LaPorta in this game, if not better.

Travis Kelce Player Props

Betting Picks & Predictions

With most of Kelce’s production likely coming early, there are a couple of ways I would look to play this.

You could take the risk for a bigger payout with Kelce priced at +425 to be the first player to 20 or 40 receiving yards. However, I’m instead just looking at his first-half prop.

Kelce’s current first-half yardage total is listed at 32.5 yards. This is a mark that he has eclipsed in every game of the playoffs, and his streak actually dates back to Week 15 against New England.

He has actually had at least 34 yards in the first half of every Chiefs playoff game dating back to their last Super Bowl against the 49ers, which is 12 straight playoff games. I think that we once again see this legend get involved early and put up over 32.5 yards in the first half of the Super Bowl.

Pick: Travis Kelce Over 32.5 1H Receiving Yards (-114 via FanDuel)

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