NASCAR Props Challenge Picks for Sunday’s Bristol Food City 500
Michael Shroyer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series drivers Kyle Larson (42) and Kyle Busch (18)
- NASCAR's Props Challenge game asks fans to answer 10 prop-betting questions each week, with weekly winners eligible for prizes.
- PJ Walsh offers his Props Challenge picks and analysis for Sunday's Food City 500 (2 p.m. ET, FS1) at Bristol Motor Speedway.
I’m still bitter about the 2018 Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway. I had a big bet on Kyle Larson to win the race, and with eight laps to go Larson appeared to be pulling away from second-place Kyle Busch.
But unfortunately for me, Larson got loose and allowed Busch to slip under him with five laps to go, costing Larson the victory and me a winning bet.
This track owes me more than one, so let’s dig into this weekend’s props. Below are my NASCAR Props Challenge picks for Sunday’s Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway.
1. The Busch brothers won both races at Bristol last year. Which one will have the higher finish on Sunday?
Kyle Busch is my top-ranked driver heading into this weekend’s race, so I already lean little bro here.
In terms of betting odds from the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, Kyle is listed at +250 compared to Kurt’s +1400, making this an easy pick for me.
Answer: Kyle Busch
2. The last four spring races at Bristol have seen an average of 17.25 lead changes. O/U 17.5 lead changes?
Each of the past three Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) races at Bristol finished with more than 17 lead changes, so let’s go over.
Answer: Over 17.5
3. Denny Hamlin’s lone win at Bristol came in 2012. Will he add another victory to his resume after his strong performance last week?
It’s basically impossible expect one driver to win any MENCS race. Considering Hamlin is 14-1 to win at Westgate, this is a very easy no.
4. The average start position for the race winner the past six races at Bristol is 10.6. Will Sunday’s race winner start inside the top 10?
Track position is already important at a short track, especially one as fast as Bristol where a leader can quickly catch the tail end of the field and start lapping cars.
Over the past 14 Cup races at Bristol, the eventual race winner has started among the top 10 cars 10 times.
5. Alex Bowman has an average finish of 6.5 at Bristol. Will he finish inside the top 10 this weekend?
The loop data from last season suggests Bowman will contend for a top 10 on Sunday, but I have a hard time expecting a mid-tier driver to finish there at a place as unpredictable as Bristol.
Bowman is an interesting under-the-radar option for NASCAR bettors and DFS players, but I still think a finish of 11th or worse is more likely than a top 10.
6. Which driver finishes higher at Bristol: Austin Dillon or Daniel Suarez?
This is really close. The drivers performed similarly at Bristol last year according to NASCAR’s loop data, so I’m going to lean on betting odds once again here.
Suarez is 60-1 at Westgate compared to Dillon’s 80-1, so I’ll follow the oddsmakers.
7. Will more than one driver lead 100 laps or more on Sunday?
Because Bristol is only one-half mile in length, the “500” in the Food City 500 stands for the total number of laps run.
With so many laps available to lead, there’s a good chance more than one driver gets out front long enough to lead 100 laps. In fact, each of the last four MENCS races at Bristol has finished with two or more drivers leading triple-digit laps.
8. O/U 7.5 different leaders in Sunday’s race?
This is more gut feel than anything data related. I’m going over, but I don’t feel the least bit confident about it.
9. Matt DiBenedetto’s career best finish of sixth came at Bristol. Will he finish inside the top 10 on Sunday?
Like Bowman, I think DiBenedetto is a fantastic sleeper option for Bristol, but there’s just no way I can expect at top 10 out of him.
10. O/U 12.5 drivers earn stage points at Bristol?
Last season at Bristol, 13.5 drivers averaged stage points across both MENCS races. Like my answer to Question No. 8, I don’t love my answer here, but I’ll lean over.