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The Timberwolves come into Game 2 riding the high of stealing Game 1 on the road, while the Spurs are back home with their backs against the wall. San Antonio is favored by 9.5 tonight, but the market is treating this like Game 1 completely flipped the script on who the better team is. It didn’t. Game 1 was just one game, and Minnesota played their absolute A game just to take it. That’s not a recipe you can run back four times in a series. I’m already seeing people overreact to the Wolves stealing Game 1 and writing the Spurs off like they’re some kind of fraud. The truth is San Antonio was the better team in the regular season, has the stronger roster top to bottom, and now gets the desperation factor of avoiding an 0-2 hole at home. Championship caliber teams don’t lose Game 2 at home after dropping the opener. This spot also checks a few systems I like, including the Zig Zag Theory which says to back a favorite off a loss in the early playoff rounds. This game sets up as a clear letdown spot for Minnesota. Stealing a road game in the playoffs is a massive emotional high, and history tells us the next road game is often where teams come back to earth. On top of that, Anthony Edwards is still dealing with his injury. He’ll likely suit up, but he will be on a minutes restriction. The Wolves’ offense runs through Edwards getting to his spots, and the second he’s off the floor, their half court offense tends to turn into one on one isolations with no real rhythm. The matchup also leans San Antonio. The Spurs have the length and rim protection to make Minnesota’s secondary creators uncomfortable, and they have the floor spacing to stretch a Wolves defense that already has to rotate aggressively against Edwards centric coverages. Our model makes the fair spread Spurs -12.5, which gives about three full points of value on a team that should be winning this game by double digits. I expect San Antonio to come out aggressive, dictate tempo early, and pull away by the fourth. Give me the Spurs to blow out the Timberwolves in Game 2.

(DK - Used Early Win) Have McClanahan 2/3 run better, but TOR LU 24 pt wRC+ L/R edge since LY - TOR far better def & pen.