Latest Betting Picks

Brunson's been quietly running hot as a facilitator: 9, 8, 8, 6 assists in four of last six, all against good defenses, BOS, DET, and DEN. Under Mike Brown, the half-court creation role has expanded, and tonight's matchup accelerates it. Houston has to trap Brunson in the pick-and-roll. Steven Adams is done for the year and Sengun doesn't have the vertical pop or shot-blocking to be the low-man safety net, so Udoka will send two at Brunson before he turns the corner. We saw this exact scheme vs. Maxey (10 assists), Cade (8 assists on 22 potential), LaMelo (7 assists on 16 potentials) and SGA (4 assists on 12 potential) because the traps generated 4-on-3 advantages all night. Brunson's supporting cast is built to punish this. KAT as the roll man in a 4-on-3 is unsolvable; pops for threes, short-rolls, makes decisions. Bridges is at 50/39 shooting splits, OG (back tonight after missing four games) is at 47/36. When Houston sends two, these guys convert, and those conversions are assists. Houston's 28th-ranked pace actually helps, more half-court reps means more PnR traps means more assist opportunities per possession. Even in Thursday's loss where the Knicks shot 5-for-28 from three around him, Brunson still had 7. Imagine normal shooting variance and that's a 10-dime night. At 5.5, this number is priced off the season average while ignoring both the recent trend and a matchup that structurally inflates assists by design. #PlayerProps