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Bet Labs
Bet Labs
Last 30d: 14-8-0 (+4.8u)
MJC Locks
MJC Locks
Last 30d: 7-23-1 (-3.0u)
SF o2.5 (F5)-130
SF
SF Team Abbreviation@COL Team Abbreviation
COL
1u
05/31 7:10 PM
Fading Tanner Gordon here. He’s struggled at Coors Field — Last 5 Games: 7, 1, 6, 4, 6 Runs Allowed He’s allowed an extremely high 13.9% Barrel% & does not get ground balls which is not a recipe for success when playing at Coors. The weather is also very hitter friendly today.
Player Prop Savant
Player Prop Savant
Last 30d: 140-118-2 (+14.8u)
SD o4.5-115
SD
SD Team Abbreviation@WSH Team Abbreviation
WSH
1.15u
05/31 5:35 PM
Allan Lem
Allan Lem
Last 30d: 17-18-1 (-1.4u)
Tailing @The_Oddsmaker
Sean Koerner🔮
Sean Koerner🔮
Last 30d: 50-52-3 (+0.7u)
I realize fading Misiorowski sounds like maybe the dumbest possible bet you can make right now. I’m well aware he’s been the best strikeout artist on the planet this season and has opened with an absurd 40% K rate. My expected K model has him closer to 37%, so I’m not even trying to argue he’s overrated. In fact, most rest-of-season projection systems still have him closer to 29-32%, which I think is far too low. Miz is legitimately that good. The market is well aware of that too, though. What caught my eye is the Astros are finally doing something I’ve been waiting for a team to do for weeks: they’re sending 7 RHB to the plate today. Like a typical RHP, Miz has faced a heavy dose of LHB so far, with 55% of his batters faced hitting from the left side. The difference is he has absolutely absurd reverse platoon splits through his first two seasons, striking out LHB at a ridiculous 43% clip compared to a mere mortal 27.8% against RHB. Stacking this many righties may subtly ding his strikeout rate just enough to matter when you’re dealing with a line this high. He can absolutely still finish with 10+ Ks and I won’t be remotely shocked if he does. But if there were ever a time to fade Miz, this is probably it. I’m projecting him closer to -145 to stay under 8.5. Not for the faint of heart, I know. But sometimes the value lies in making the bet nobody else wants to make.
Sandy Plashkes
Sandy Plashkes
Last 30d: 107-110-3 (-9.3u)
SD -108
SD
SD Team Abbreviation@WSH Team Abbreviation
WSH
1.08u
05/31 5:35 PM
Derek Carty
Derek Carty
Last 30d: 25-47-3 (+5.6u)
There may be some value on Jorge Mateo's hits prop. THE BAT X is projecting him to record 0.67 hits, and oddsmakers are implying 0.81. The model believes there is a 51% chance he records fewer than 1 hit. If you can get the under at +135 or better there is great value here. This play is good down to at least +117. Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/mlb?ref=zdlkmgz
Wags Wins
Wags Wins
Last 30d: 222-282-3 (-83.5u)
MIA +138
MIA
MIA Team Abbreviation@NYM Team Abbreviation
NYM
1u
05/31 5:40 PM
💰🦡 Jake
💰🦡 Jake
Last 30d: 66-75-5 (+2.6u)
WSH -110 (F5)
SD
SD Team Abbreviation@WSH Team Abbreviation
WSH
1.1u
05/31 5:35 PM
Lock & Cash
Lock & Cash
Last 30d: 43-19-2 (+20.7u)
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