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#EV

60 min ML

Don’t let any recent results sway your opinion, this BYU team has not been good and is not a team you want to back going forward. They were already bad defensively, but since losing veteran Richie Saunders their defense has fallen off a cliff. While they may still be a top 20 offense, they’re a bottom 200 defense in the country. While Houston’s offense isn’t their usual strength, anyone can punish this BYU defense. Houston will also have had extended rest and preparation compared to BYU. A Houston team with a 2+ day rest advantage is a scary sight. Houston already works harder than anyone in the country, so giving them a rest advantage is not optimal for a BYU team that was in a track meet with Kansas State on Tuesday and played a slugfest with West Virginia last night. When these teams played during the regular season, I actually bet on BYU at home. However, I made that bet because it was the perfect spot for BYU and a really tough game at elevation for Houston. So what happened? Houston won by 11 on the road in an awful spot, even with Richie Saunders playing. Houston clearly owns this matchup, as Kelvin Sampson is 3-0 against the spread since Kevin Young was hired. They have won these games by an average cover margin of 14.67. BYU may have AJ Dybansta, but Houston is top to bottom more talented at every level. The BYU big men have been exposed ever since taking on a bigger workload after Saunders went down. Keita, Mboup, and Ahmed simply are not very good and now have to face a Houston defense that is elite down low. It’s funny because I was “hating” on the Houston offense earlier in this write-up, but Houston is actually first in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency and first in turnover percentage. This is a very well rounded team that honestly hasn’t even played up to how good they are. Kelvin Sampson knows how to push his guys, and this is the time of year they begin to peak. As much as this bet is on Houston, it’s also a massive fade of this current BYU team. They are 14th in defensive efficiency in Big 12 play and are allowing teams to shoot a 54.2% effective field goal percentage against them. They’re also 272nd in three point defense and now face a Houston team that loves the three ball. Our model has Houston winning 77.21 to 64.62 for a fair spread of 12.58. Houston already has the matchup advantage and now BYU has to face them on short rest and no prep. That is not ideal. Give me Houston in a rout.