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Another one that isn’t for the faint of heart. Palmer didn’t see a target until Buffalo’s final two plays last week. The first was nearly picked off to end the game, then the second somehow turned into the go-ahead 34-yard TD. Allen even said afterward they had never repped that play going to Palmer and “probably shouldn’t do things like that going forward” I went back and watched every Palmer route from Week 1, and most of the time he was just running deep/clearout stuff to open up the rest of the field. If Buffalo keeps leaning into heavy 3TE usage, his playing time should stay limited too. That gives him a massive range of outcomes. He can very realistically go 0/0/0, or catch one 30-yard bomb and make this look like the dumbest bet of the night. My sim has him around 16 yards on average but only a 9.5-yard median, with Under 12.5 around 57%. Classic mean-vs-median prop where a few explosive outcomes drag the average way up even though most paths still land below the number. And yes, these props suck to bet because if he does nothing, nobody remembers it. If he catches one deep ball, I get “nice pick idiot” replies for the next hour. But Palmer’s fluky 1/34/1 Week 1 line is exactly the kind of thing I want to sell high on.