Latest Betting Picks

After 1

Tobias dropped 20 in Game 1 taking advantage of Harden down the stretch. I believe as an adjustment, Cleveland is going more zone tonight. Detroit is a bottom-3 three-point shooting team by percentage, which means Atkinson has the justification to move off man defense and run the Wade-Mobley-Allen three-big lineup that posts a 100 defensive rating. In zone, Detroit becomes a kick-out offense. Cade probes, the ball moves, and Tobias becomes a catcher, not a creator. His 6-of-14 in Game 1 came mostly on post-ups, which the zone closes off entirely. He's shooting 34% from three this postseason, and at that % you live with spot-up shots over rim. Then, as addressed in the article, the Mobley-on-Harris matchup adjustment is something that could unravel as the game progresses, but the bigger story is the zone wrinkle. With Detroit's playmaking now spread across Ausar in transition, Duren on short-roll, and Jenkins as Cunningham's safety valve, Tobias's offensive volume gets squeezed from every direction. He's not the second option anymore, he's the third. Volume drop plus 34% from deep equals a structural cap somewhere around 15-17 points. The market priced him off Game 1's box score; the structural play is the under. #PlayerProps

Boosted to +585 on FD