Latest Betting Picks

Saudi Arabia arrives at the World Cup following a coaching change just two months before the tournament. There is a question about what kind of football they would play under Georgios Donis, but I expect a very defensive one, since I do not think they have much to offer up front. I believe they will look to win points in the Cape Verde game and try to secure one point from this match, which pretty much means they will start with a more defensive approach. Under coach Donis, they only allowed two goals in three games against Ecuador, Puerto Rico, and Senegal. Uruguay is one of the more interesting teams for me. They do not like to have possession and often struggle to create when they have to build their attack that way. The basis of their game is intensity, high pressure, and forcing opposing teams to make mistakes near their goal. Even though I consider them a much better team individually than Saudi Arabia, Uruguay has had massive problems scoring goals. In the World Cup Qualifiers, they averaged only 1.22 goals per game and went under 2.5 goals in 12 of 18 games (67%). In recent friendlies, we could see just how low their xG was as they had 0.48 against the Dominican Republic, 0.08 vs. Mexico, 0.59 vs. USA, etc. Those offensive struggles might get enhanced if their main creator, de Arrascaeta, is not fit for the match. Even though I believe Uruguay is a better team and will win, I do not expect them to score easily, and an under 2.5 goals bet seems like the best option for this game. #PlayerProps

I was waiting to see if it would be Connor Norby or Javier Sanoja hitting 9th for the Marlins today and Miami just announced it’ll be Sanoja, which makes this a noticeably tougher lineup for Wheeler to rack up Ks against. I cashed on Wheeler’s under 5.5 Ks in his last start, but he’s still showing up as a bit of a sell high in my expected Ks model. His actual K rate is still running about 3% higher than expected and a lot of that is due to a career-high 37% chase rate. Now for a borderline Hall of Fame type pitcher like Wheeler, getting hitters to chase at an above-average rate is nothing new. But 37% is a different level. At some point I’d expect that to drift closer to his career norms and when it does, his K rate could take a pretty decent hit. The reason is Wheeler is simultaneously allowing a career-high 86% contact rate on pitches in the zone. That’s a bit of a sneaky red flag because he’s missing fewer bats when he throws strikes. His whiff rate is down this season, but it’s been masked by hitters continuing to chase pitches out of the zone at an absurd rate. The Marlins profile as the type of lineup that could expose that. They have the 10th-lowest chase rate in baseball at just 29%. The only two starts this season where Wheeler faced a team that chased 31% or less, he finished with a season-low 4 Ks both times. So the sweat is pretty simple. We need the Marlins to not take the bait when Wheeler goes fishing by throwing a pitch out of the zone. Will Wheeler still end up with 7+ Ks because he’s Zack Wheeler? Possibly. But this is one of the better spots we’ve had in a while to fade him. I’m projecting this closer to -170 to stay under 6.5 Ks.

#Tailing @nick_giffen