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McLean’s superpower through his first two MLB seasons has been generating called strikes. It’s one of the least sticky pitcher skills year to year, yet he’s managed to consistently tie hitters up. After posting an elite 59.5% zone swing rate as a rookie, hitters are still swinging at just 59.5% of pitches in the zone this year (league average is typically 66-67%). His stuff and pitch mix are excellent, so he has the arsenal to keep freezing hitters, but a lot of his other underlying metrics are much closer to league average. If hitters start attacking more strikes, his K rate takes a significant hit. We’ve already started to see that happen. Over his first 7 starts, opponents swung at just 58% of pitches in the zone. Over his last 7 starts, that’s jumped to 62%, and his strikeout rate has fallen accordingly. I think that’s closer to his true talent level than what we saw earlier in the season. The Reds rank 7th-lowest in zone swing rate on the season, but today’s projected lineup looks a bit more aggressive than their team numbers suggest. Part of that is rookie Edwin Arroyo leading off. It’s obviously a tiny sample with only 39 plate appearances, but he’s swung at an absurd 84% of strikes so far. That’s exactly the type of approach that can neutralize one of McLean’s biggest strengths and hopefully set the tone for the rest of the lineup. I still expect McLean to rack up a handful of strikeouts because his ability to steal called strikes is very real. But 6.5 is exposing his most likely outcome range here. I have him landing in the 5-6 K bucket most often and staying under 6.5 around 62% of the time.

Join Discord for earlier access: https://discord.gg/HjKxYKdSUy This is a first-five bet on two starters who can lose the game fast. Littell just allowed 5 runs in 1.2 innings, while Avila got tagged for 8 by Houston before finishing the 1st. Kansas City's weak offense is the risk, but Washington entered the series with MLB's highest run-scoring rate.