Latest MLB Betting Picks

(FD) Messick has been a full run better than Matz so far, CLE much better DEF, Bullpen

Dylan Cease is pitching as well as we have ever seen him. Cease has always had crazy talent, but he has struggled with getting barreled and walking batters. This year, he has looked as good as ever. He currently has a 2.10 ERA with a 2.69 xERA and 1.45 FIP. Though a smaller sample size, these are the best estimators of his career, and the advanced metrics back it up. Cease has just a .190 xBA with an absurd 39.6% strikeout rate and 40.1% whiff rate. He’s also been barreled 0 times this season, which is wildly impressive. To make things even better, when balls are put in play against Cease, he’s rocking a 55.8% ground ball rate. He is the ultimate run preventer right now. Cease has always been a hard guy to trust because of blowups, but this version of him is refreshing to see. The Red Sox offense continues to disappoint, as they currently sit 28th in wRC+. Cease should be able to handle this lineup. Ranger Suarez is one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball, but he has struggled to open 2026. Despite the poor start, he’s a pitcher I am not really concerned about. Suarez has not ended a season above a 4.2 ERA since 2018 and continues to have solid pitching run values while still keeping the ball on the ground. Suarez ended last season with one of the best hard-hit rates in the league, so I expect some positive regression soon, with results trending back toward the mean. Suarez has also been dominant against this Blue Jays lineup during his career. In 30 plate appearances, he’s allowing a .154 average with an average exit velocity of just 74.4 MPH. I think both of these starters will have good outings today. Our model makes the fair total for the first five innings just 3.2. The Rogers Centre is also just 22nd in runs allowed per game, so this should set up as a good pitching environment today. Give me the first five innings under 4. I would play this at 3.5 for 1 unit.

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