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Justin Wrobleski has gotten the best of us this year, but this is a spot where I see him performing really poorly. His underlying metrics continue to suck, and he simply can’t continue to get this lucky. Wrobleski currently has a 2.87 ERA with a 3.85 xERA, 4.54 xFIP, and 4.56 SIERA. All of his expected metrics are over a run worse than his current ERA. He’s also striking out just 16% of batters and has the worst extension in the league. His regression hasn’t hit yet, but I think it will at Chase Field. This is a ballpark where it’s hard to get lucky on batted balls, and that’s all Wrobleski allows. Chase Field ranks top 10 in runs scored because of its gigantic outfield. The heat, combined with Phoenix’s 1,082 foot elevation, gives fly balls a measurable boost in distance. The Diamondbacks are also second in baseball in wRC+ against left handed pitching. This unit has been elite against lefties, so I would be shocked if Wrobleski pitches well tonight. Ryne Nelson is a pitcher I don’t mind, but he’s pretty one dimensional. His fastball is great, but he throws it 60% of the time, so he can often become predictable. He also doesn’t keep the ball on the ground, as he owns just a 29.9% ground ball rate. Nelson is also getting barreled 11.8% of the time, which is not ideal against a Dodgers lineup that leads MLB in wRC+ against right handed pitching. Ohtani may sit tonight, and that’s why this total dropped slightly, but this lineup is elite from top to bottom even without him. Nelson’s expected metrics sit around 5, and he’s already been crushed by the Dodgers this season. I debated taking the first five innings over, but decided I liked the full game over more because I think this Diamondbacks bullpen is brutally bad. They’ve been good as of late, but I don’t think it lasts. Their bullpen has the ability to collapse in any given game, and I think we see it here against LA. Arizona also used a lot of their arms heavily last night. The Dodgers bullpen is solid, but funky things happen when playing at Chase Field. Give me the over 9.5.