Latest MLB Betting Picks

Marlins have been on fire at home lately but I like the Rangers using Tyler Alexander as an opener to navigate Stowers/Marsee. Projecting this closer to 8.

Brown owns a ridiculous 38% K rate through his first three starts, but my expected K model has him much closer to the 27-28% range we’d normally expect. He’s benefited from a pretty favorable schedule so far with all 3 starts coming at home and a nearly perfect 50/50 split of righties and lefties. That’s important because Brown has fairly sharp reverse splits and actually strikes out left-handed hitters at a higher rate. Toronto is sending six righties to the plate tonight, which subtly dings his strikeout expectation. The biggest reason I’m fading him, though, is how he’s gotten there. Brown has benefited enormously from opponents simply refusing to swing at strikes. That’s arguably the easiest path to strikeouts because every taken pitch in the zone is automatically a strike unless the umpire misses the call. Once hitters start swinging at those pitches, they at least introduce the possibility of contact, foul balls, or extending the plate appearance. Not only are the Blue Jays one of the tougher teams in baseball to strike out, they also swing at pitches in the zone at the 4th-highest rate in the league. They’re almost perfectly built to challenge the area where Brown has been running hottest. He’s always been above average at freezing hitters, but not nearly to the extent we’ve seen through three starts. I’m projecting him closer to -150 to stay under 5.5 strikeouts.