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Painter, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, is off to a rough start to his rookie season with just a 20% K rate through 7 starts. However, he’s quietly trending up and was a bit unlucky to finish with only 4 Ks in his last outing against the Red Sox as my expected K model had him closer to 5.7 Ks with an expected K rate of 30%. He tweaked his pitch mix to become much more slider/sweeper heavy while lowering his 4-seam usage, and it paid off immediately. Not only did the secondaries generate a ton of whiffs, but 4-seamer whiff rate went up as well. It’s possible that pitch mix adjustment was just a one-start experiment, but considering he went 5 innings while allowing just 1 ER after a brutal four-start slump, I’m guessing he sticks fairly close to it. This also sets up as a sneaky good lineup construction for him. The top 3 hitters in the Reds lineup have around a 4% higher expected K rate against Painter than the bottom 6 hitters, which matters because I have him projected to get pulled right around the time he’d face the 5-hitter for the 3rd time. It also helps that the Reds are sending 5 RHB to the plate tonight and Painter has been significantly better at home so far. I’m projecting this closer to -155 and think this is a sneaky buy-low spot on him.