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His K rate is up to 21.7%, but his adjusted K rate is just 16.4%, driven in part by a 38% chase rate that’s likely to regress and another sneaky reason below. There’s a bit of a trap here with his role. The bull case is that he’s only made one start, with three relief appearances, so his pitch count should be up closer to 90 today, giving him more chances to rack up Ks. But that usage has also inflated his K rate so far, as 52% of the batters he’s faced have come the first time through the order, when pitchers have their biggest strikeout edge. As he’s forced to go deeper today and face more hitters a second and third time through, that natural drop-off in K rate should start to show. The matchup also works against him. He throws his four-seamer about 45% of the time, and the Phillies have the 5th lowest whiff rate against four-seamers, which should limit how often he gets to two-strike counts where he can lean on his splitter and slider. I’m projecting this closer to -175.

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