Hedging Calculator
Use the hedging calculator to see how you can guarantee yourself a profit on your live bets. Enter your bets and see how much you need to hedge.
Hedging Calculator for Sports Betting and Prediction Markets
When you hedge a sports bet, you are diverting risk that is associated with your first bet. This first bet is usually a longshot or a future, like a future for a team to win a Superbowl or a big moneyline upset. Hedging a bet is best explained by using an example. Let's say you place a bet today for the LA Rams to win Super Bowl 61.
By using our Super Bowl 61 Odds page, you can see that as of July 29, 2026 the odds for the Rams to win the Super Bowl are +650. Let's say you decide to bet $100 on the Rams to win the Super Bowl. If this bet won, you would profit $650 dollars. After you place this bet, the Rams put together a dominant season and are matched up against the Buffalo Bills in the Super Bowl. The moneyline odds for the Super Bowl are given as: Los Angeles Rams (-235) v. Buffalo Bills (+195).
You have an outstanding bet for the Rams to win the Super Bowl at +650. You can continue to let this bet ride, or you can hedge it. Using our hedging calculator, you will enter in the original odds (+650), your original bet amount ($100), your hedging bet odds (+195 for the Bills to beat the Rams in the Super Bowl), and then your bet amount will be given to you. In this instance, you would bet $254.24 on the Bills to beat the Rams, and net yourself $495.76 in profit. Let's take a look at why this is.
Rams to Win the Super Bowl:
- $ Lost if Bet Loses: $100 OR $ Won if Bet Wins (Profit): $650
- Bills to Beat Rams in the Super Bowl: $ Lost if Bet Loses: $254.24 OR $ Won if Bet Wins (Profit): $495.77
If both of these outcomes played out, you still end up with profit. If the Rams win, you win your original futures bet (+$650) and lose the Bills bet (-$254.24). In this scenario you end up with $395.76 in profit.
If the Bills win, you win your Bills moneyline bet (+$495.77) and lose the Rams futures bet (-$100). In this scenario, you end up with $395.77 in profit. The expected profit you have by using the hedging calculator is almost equal. By hedging your bet, you are locking in roughly $395.76 in profit. This is regardless of the outcome of the game!
The Mental Side of Hedging Your Bet
There is often another piece you need to consider when hedging your bet, and that is what you can handle mentally. It is very important to gamble responsibly and at regulated sportsbooks, so only let your bet ride if you are ok with incurring the loss. If you are looking for a safe approach, it is more likely that hedging is the right choice for you.
Hedging With Prediction Markets Like Polymarket
Traditional sportsbooks aren't the only place you can hedge. Prediction markets such as Polymarket let you hedge a bet in a way that's often more flexible than a second sportsbook wager, because you can buy and sell your position at any time before the event settles.
On a prediction market, you don't bet against the house. Instead, you buy "Yes" or "No" shares in an outcome, each priced between $0.01 and $0.99, where the price reflects the market's implied probability. A contract trading at $0.72 implies the market thinks that outcome has roughly a 72% chance of happening, and a winning share always settles at $1.00.
That structure changes how hedging works. Using the same example above ($100 futures bet on the Rams at +650) you could hedge on a prediction market instead of at a sportsbook. If "Bills to win the Super Bowl" shares are trading at, say, $0.38 (a ~38% implied probability), you'd buy enough shares to lock in a profit no matter who wins, the same principle as the sportsbook hedge in the table above. Because each winning share pays exactly $1.00, the math is easy to eyeball: buy 100 shares at $0.38 for $38, and each one returns $1.00 if the Bills win.
There are two features that make prediction markets particularly useful for hedging:
- You can exit early. Unlike a fixed sportsbook wager, you can sell your shares back into the market at any time before the game ends. If the Bills jump out to an early lead and your "Bills" shares climb from $0.38 to $0.70, you can sell and lock in the gain without waiting for the final whistle, or use that movement to fine-tune your hedge in real time.
- Pricing is market-driven, not set by a bookmaker. Because prices come from supply and demand rather than a sportsbook building in its margin (the "vig"), the effective cost of your hedge can sometimes be tighter than the moneyline a sportsbook would offer on the same outcome.
A couple of things to keep in mind. Prediction-market prices move constantly, so the price you see when you go to hedge may differ from the one you planned around, check the live price before you commit. Prediction markets also typically charge a small trading fee rather than building a margin into the odds, so factor that into your break-even math. And availability varies: prediction markets operate under different regulations than sportsbooks and aren't offered in every state, so confirm the platform is available where you are before relying on it as a hedging tool.
The core lesson from the calculator still applies. Whether you hedge at a sportsbook or on a prediction market like Polymarket, the goal is the same: divert the risk on your original bet and lock in a more certain outcome, as long as you're comfortable trading some upside for that certainty.
Hedging Calculator for Sports Betting and Prediction Markets
When you hedge a sports bet, you are diverting risk that is associated with your first bet. This first bet is usually a longshot or a future, like a future for a team to win a Superbowl or a big moneyline upset. Hedging a bet is best explained by using an example. Let's say you place a bet today for the LA Rams to win Super Bowl 61.
By using our Super Bowl 61 Odds page, you can see that as of July 29, 2026 the odds for the Rams to win the Super Bowl are +650. Let's say you decide to bet $100 on the Rams to win the Super Bowl. If this bet won, you would profit $650 dollars. After you place this bet, the Rams put together a dominant season and are matched up against the Buffalo Bills in the Super Bowl. The moneyline odds for the Super Bowl are given as: Los Angeles Rams (-235) v. Buffalo Bills (+195).
You have an outstanding bet for the Rams to win the Super Bowl at +650. You can continue to let this bet ride, or you can hedge it. Using our hedging calculator, you will enter in the original odds (+650), your original bet amount ($100), your hedging bet odds (+195 for the Bills to beat the Rams in the Super Bowl), and then your bet amount will be given to you. In this instance, you would bet $254.24 on the Bills to beat the Rams, and net yourself $495.76 in profit. Let's take a look at why this is.
Rams to Win the Super Bowl:
- $ Lost if Bet Loses: $100 OR $ Won if Bet Wins (Profit): $650
- Bills to Beat Rams in the Super Bowl: $ Lost if Bet Loses: $254.24 OR $ Won if Bet Wins (Profit): $495.77
If both of these outcomes played out, you still end up with profit. If the Rams win, you win your original futures bet (+$650) and lose the Bills bet (-$254.24). In this scenario you end up with $395.76 in profit.
If the Bills win, you win your Bills moneyline bet (+$495.77) and lose the Rams futures bet (-$100). In this scenario, you end up with $395.77 in profit. The expected profit you have by using the hedging calculator is almost equal. By hedging your bet, you are locking in roughly $395.76 in profit. This is regardless of the outcome of the game!
The Mental Side of Hedging Your Bet
There is often another piece you need to consider when hedging your bet, and that is what you can handle mentally. It is very important to gamble responsibly and at regulated sportsbooks, so only let your bet ride if you are ok with incurring the loss. If you are looking for a safe approach, it is more likely that hedging is the right choice for you.
Hedging With Prediction Markets Like Polymarket
Traditional sportsbooks aren't the only place you can hedge. Prediction markets such as Polymarket let you hedge a bet in a way that's often more flexible than a second sportsbook wager, because you can buy and sell your position at any time before the event settles.
On a prediction market, you don't bet against the house. Instead, you buy "Yes" or "No" shares in an outcome, each priced between $0.01 and $0.99, where the price reflects the market's implied probability. A contract trading at $0.72 implies the market thinks that outcome has roughly a 72% chance of happening, and a winning share always settles at $1.00.
That structure changes how hedging works. Using the same example above ($100 futures bet on the Rams at +650) you could hedge on a prediction market instead of at a sportsbook. If "Bills to win the Super Bowl" shares are trading at, say, $0.38 (a ~38% implied probability), you'd buy enough shares to lock in a profit no matter who wins, the same principle as the sportsbook hedge in the table above. Because each winning share pays exactly $1.00, the math is easy to eyeball: buy 100 shares at $0.38 for $38, and each one returns $1.00 if the Bills win.
There are two features that make prediction markets particularly useful for hedging:
- You can exit early. Unlike a fixed sportsbook wager, you can sell your shares back into the market at any time before the game ends. If the Bills jump out to an early lead and your "Bills" shares climb from $0.38 to $0.70, you can sell and lock in the gain without waiting for the final whistle, or use that movement to fine-tune your hedge in real time.
- Pricing is market-driven, not set by a bookmaker. Because prices come from supply and demand rather than a sportsbook building in its margin (the "vig"), the effective cost of your hedge can sometimes be tighter than the moneyline a sportsbook would offer on the same outcome.
A couple of things to keep in mind. Prediction-market prices move constantly, so the price you see when you go to hedge may differ from the one you planned around, check the live price before you commit. Prediction markets also typically charge a small trading fee rather than building a margin into the odds, so factor that into your break-even math. And availability varies: prediction markets operate under different regulations than sportsbooks and aren't offered in every state, so confirm the platform is available where you are before relying on it as a hedging tool.
The core lesson from the calculator still applies. Whether you hedge at a sportsbook or on a prediction market like Polymarket, the goal is the same: divert the risk on your original bet and lock in a more certain outcome, as long as you're comfortable trading some upside for that certainty.