Chelsea vs Leicester City Updated Betting Preview: Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions
Marc Atkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea teammates Mason Mount, left, and César Azpilicueta.
Chelsea vs. Leicester Odds
| Chelsea Odds | -270 |
| Leicester Odds | +700 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-154 / +126) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated as of Saturday morning via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Fresh off a 3-0 drubbing against Leeds United last week at Elland Road, Chelsea welcomes Leicester City to Stamford Bridge for Saturday's Premier League match.
The Blues are winless in their last two fixtures, while the visiting Foxes remain without a victory through their first three matches of the 2022-23 campaign.
Last season, Chelsea thoroughly dominated this head-to-head meeting. Even though manager Thomas Tuchel's side dropped points at home in a 1-1 draw, it combined to win the two meetings on expected goals by a 4.1-0.5 margin.
Chelsea
Perhaps Chelsea's defeat against Leeds can be attributed to a letdown from its riveting fixture against Tottenham, but either way it looked poor.
A normally reliable Chelsea defense conceded 2.22 xG and three big scoring chances to the Leeds attack, while creating only 0.88 xG on 14 total shots, per fotmob.com.
For the season, Chelsea can be best described as… average. The Blues have managed to create only 3.1 non-penalty xG and conceded 3.6 non-penalty xG, per fbref.com. The former stat is arguably more concerning since only seven sides have managed fewer NPxG through three games than Chelsea.
By The Numbers
- +0.09 — Chelsea xGDiff/90 minutes through three matches.
- 9 — Total wins by Chelsea in its last 20 home contests.
Leicester City
Let's not beat around the bush with Leicester City. That's a bad club.
Through three fixtures, manager Brendan Rodgers' side has managed only 1.5 COMBINED xG despite scoring five times. The Foxes are no better on big scoring chances, either. In their three matches against Brentford, Arsenal and Southampton, they've managed only a single big scoring chance.
Defensively, it's even worse. Leicester ranks dead last in big scoring chances against and goal-creating actions against. Further, in its most recent road outing with Arsenal, the visiting side's defense conceded five big chances.
By The Numbers
- 10 — Big scoring chances conceded by the Leicester City defense.
- 2.2 — The Foxes' xGA/90 minutes in their last seven road tilts against Big Six.
Betting Analysis & Pick
To me, this is the perfect spot to buy low on Chelsea.
I can't overstate this enough that fact that Chelsea completed annihilated Leicester in two matches last season and was super unlucky not to earn three points in both games.
In those two outings, which I feel obligated to mention featured zero red cards, the Blues won the big scoring chances battle by an 8-1 advantage, while managing at least three big chances in each leg. Defensively, the Chelsea defense conceded only six total shots to the Leicester attack, which already looks horrible through early on this season.
For all of the Blues' issues, they have still managed to boss possession, as they're third in the league in average possession rate. Meanwhile, the Foxes struggled mightily last season against the league's five best possession sides. In 10 such matches, the Foxes were 1-7-2 (W-L-D) and posted a -1.11 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
On the road, Leicester was 0-4-1 (W-L-D) against those five sides and posted a -1.32 xGDiff per 90 minutes, per fbref.com. Additionally, those five contests saw the Foxes create less than 0.3 xG in a majority.
I'm not opposed to the host giving -1.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at +100 odds or better, but am instead opting for a Chelsea — Win to Nil wager to get a better plus-money opportunity.
The Pick: Chelsea — Win to Nil (+135)
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