Everton at Arsenal Updated Odds, Prediction, Preview: Bet Underdog in Monday EPL Clash

Updated Everton vs. Arsenal Odds

Perennial Premier League contenders currently going in opposite directions square off Monday when struggling Everton hosts Arsenal at Goodison Park.

The Toffees enter this showdown in uncharacteristic brutal form from a results perspective. They were dealt a midweek 4-1 shellacking at the hands of Liverpool that extended their winless run to eight matches. The defeat also kept Rafa Benitez smack dab on the managerial hot seat.

On the other side, the Gunners have enjoyed a magical first third of their campaign. After a rough start, they've worked their way into fifth place and find themselves contending for European soccer next season. They had gone unbeaten in six consecutive league tilts before this past Thursday's 3-2 loss against Manchester United at Old Trafford.

Oddsmakers have made Arsenal the road favorite at +110 odds, with Everton checking in at +230 on the three-way line. You can find plenty of value on the draw wager, which sits at +250 odds as of writing.

Everton Long Overdue for Positive Result

Things haven't been going so well for Benitez and the Toffees, who have lost six of their last seven league contests. Everton is five points clear of the relegation zone, but it's starting to get a little too close for comfort.

The loss of Dominic Calvert-Lewin hasn't helped in any capacity. The Toffees' talisman continues to miss time as he recovers from a thigh injury. Plus, Calvert-Lewin being linked to a rumored summer move to the Emirates clearly adds a little more spice to this confrontation.

Looking at Everton's advanced metrics, the floundering side hasn't been good, but they also haven't been awful. The Toffees have only managed 18.0 expected goals and yielded 20.0 expected goals against, resulting in a -2.0 xG differential and flat -0.14 xGDiff per 90 minutes, according to FBref.com.

And the most interesting part of those data points? They're all better than what Arsenal has been able to put together this season in the same amount of games. So, that's something you should seriously mull over considering these outfits are eight points and 10 places apart in the English top flight.

Advanced Metrics Not Too Kind to Arsenal

From a betting angle, the Gunners have been kind to me this season. I've been on the right side of my plays when backing them to the tune of a 70-percent clip, so they have obviously have my respect.

However, I still believe Arsenal is well overdue for some bad performances as we head into the new year. To say the Gunners have been somewhat fortunate to be where they are in the standings would be an understatement, especially if you take into consideration how bad they've been on the defensive side.

When it comes to the statistical data, Arsenal's numbers don't match where it sits in the table as we mentioned above. In fact, they're downright mediocre and borderline bad in my opinion. The Gunners have only amassed 17.8 xG and conceded a subpar 23.0 xGA, generating a lackluster -5.2 xGDiff and mediocre -0.37 xGDiff/90 minutes.

And those 23.0 xGA in league play this season? That's the fifth-worst total in the entire 20-team league. Obviously, that — and other numbers — aren't what you'd expect from a club seriously contending for a Champions League spot.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

Something has got to give with Everton. It's as simple as that. This outfit isn't as bad as its record and position in the standings, so I'm cautiously optimistic Benitez's men can right the ship in this crucial showdown.

The key historical trend between these sides is the fact Arsenal is winless in four of its last five journeys to Goodison Park. So, the odds are leaning in our favor that the Toffees can get another positive result against the Gunners on home soil.

That said, I've found a ton of value on Everton getting a half goal on the spread line at -130 odds via DraftKings and will make it my top selection. The Toffees might not win the match, but there's no reason they can't secure at least a point against a club that has struggled away from Emirates Stadium of late.

If you're looking to dabble in a side wager, take a minor swing on both teams to score at -125 odds. I don't see Arsenal getting blanked, but its awful xGA stat line sticks out like a sore thumb. Bottom line, Everton should be able to bag at least one goal against the Gunners' defense to hopefully deliver a winner.

Pick: Everton +0.5 (-130)