Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Arsenal vs. Leicester City EPL Betting Preview

Arsenal vs. Leicester City Odds

Arsenal looks to keep its great run of form in the Premier League going Sunday when it welcomes Leicester City to Emirates Stadium.

The Gunners have won four consecutive matches to climb into the fourth and final Champions League qualification spot for next season. Meanwhile, the Foxes are in 12th and fresh off a midweek victory in Europa Conference League Round of 16 play.

A win would give Arsenal its first league double over Leicester since the 2015-16 campaign, and I think this is a great spot to back the home team.

Arsenal, Arteta Driving Toward Finish Line

At one point earlier in the season, many Arsenal fans were calling for manager Mikel Arteta to get fired. However, I don’t think you will hear any of those claims right now.

No team in England's first division has earned more points over their last 10 league games than the Gunners, who have taken 25 out of an available 30 points during their stellar run.

The lone loss over this stretch came against Manchester City, which had a controversial late penalty to decide the match.

Beyond the great form, Arsenal will also gain confidence in the race for fourth in the fact that the club has multiple games in hand over the opposition. Will the Gunners finally be returning to the Champions League next season?

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Leicester City Hoping to Reverse Fortune

Whether it has been injuries piling up or poor results, things have not gone to plan for Leicester this season.

The primary issues have been on the defensive side of the ball, where the Foxes rank toward the bottom of the EPL in expected goals allowed per 90 minutes (1.71) and opponents’ shots per match (15.56) this season.

Manager Brendan Rodgers’ team has also struggled away from home, picking up only three road wins out of 12.

To make matters worse, leading scorer Jamie Vardy is likely out after picking up an injury in the victory against Leeds United last weekend.

BJ Cunningham's EPL Model Projections

Betting Analysis & Pick

Oddsmakers at BetMGM has Arsenal listed as the heavy -200 favorite on the moneyline for the match, while the total is set at 2.5 goals.

There is only one side I can back in this game, but there is a better way that features some value on the board to back the Gunners.

That said, my best bet is a Single Game Parlay combining Arsenal on the moneyline with the total staying under 4.5 combined goals at -110 odds.

We talked about the great run Arteta’s team is on, but the advanced metrics paint an even better picture. Over the last 10 league fixtures, the Gunners have posted a +11.3 xGDiff and outscored their opponents by a 23-7 margin.

Another key factor behind this bet is how the Foxes have fared on the road, where they have a -3.6 xG difference and have only secured wins against Norwich City, Brentford and Burnley.

If you look at away games against similar opposition in West Ham United, Manchester City, Liverpool and Wolves, Leicester lost all four of those matches by a combined 14-5 margin.

This comes up against an Arsenal team that only trails Liverpool and Man City in points picked up at home, with the Gunners winning nine of 13 at the Emirates.

As for the total, only three of the last 12 matches for the North London side has finished with more than four goals. Meanwhile, only two of the last 10 games for Leicester have gone over this total.

Add it all up, I think this is the best way to back Arsenal for another victory.

Pick: Single Game Parlay — Arsenal ML & Total Under 4.5 Goals (-110)

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