Thursday Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Wolves vs. Watford EPL Betting Preview

Wolves vs. Watford Odds

Wolverhampton welcomes Watford to the Molineux Stadium on Thursday for match pitting struggling Premier League teams against each other.

Wolves have lost five of their last seven across all competitions, but are sitting in the top half of the league table in eighth place.

Meanwhile, the Hornets are in desperate need of points as they fight to avoid relegation after just one season back in the English top flight.

These teams have some of the lowest attacking output in the league this season, so I think we could be in line for a cagey affair.

Wolves Striving for Solid Finish

Even though their recent form hasn’t been that good, Wolves have put together a solid campaign and have a chance of finishing in the top half of the league standings.

The primary reason for this has been how the team has played defensively, ranking in the top five of the league in the fewest goals allowed (23) and big scoring chances surrendered (22), according to fbref.com.

The play of goalkeeper José Sá has also helped in this department, as he's tied with Manchester United standout David de Gea for the best post-shot xG minus goals allowed per 90 minutes mark at +0.38 this season.

Unfortunately, Wolves’ attacking numbers are nowhere near as good, with only Burnley and Norwich City scoring fewer goals this season.

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Watford Facing Uphill Relegation Climb

Watford is in serious trouble of relegation unless manager Roy Hodgson can start leading his side to positive results in a quick fashion.

However, we are seeing some progress from the club since Hodgson was hired for the job, primarily in the defensive metrics.

In his seven games in charge, the Hornets have held their opponents to an average of 1.33 expected goals per match, which is much better than the 1.91 xGA average before he became manager.

These improvements have likely taken a toll on their offensive metrics, with Watford failing to score in four games and posting 0.843 xG per 90 minutes during that span.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

When we look at the betting odds for this match, BetMGM has listed Wolves as the -125 favorites on the moneyline, while the total is set at 2.5 goals.

I agree with the oddsmakers that this should be a low-scoring game, especially in the opening period. For that reason, my best bet is to take No on a Goal to be Scored in Both Halves bet at -135 odds.

If you look at the home team, Wolves have failed to score in the first half of 19 of 27 (70%) EPL games, including in 69 percent games at Molineux Stadium. My official play would have also cashed in 21 of 27 (78%) league fixtures this season involving manager Bruno Lage’s team.

Meanwhile, Watford has been shut out in the opening half in five of Hodgson’s seven games in charge, while failing to score in the first half of all four away games during that stretch.

You also have to add in the fact this game features teams that rank near the bottom of the league in xG per 90 minutes and shots per game.

If you’re looking for a better price, I like the total staying under 0.5 for first-half goals at +145 odds. However, I do like the extra security my play provides.

This isn’t the game for you if you like high-flying, attacking soccer, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t solid betting value on the board to pounce on.

Pick: Goal to be Scored in Both Halves — No (-135)