Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Southampton EPL Betting Preview (April 24)

Brighton vs. Southampton Odds

Brighton & Hove Albion and Southampton are safely in the Premier League mid-table with the season entering the final month of play, but these South Coast rivals have to settle their season series in Sunday's showdown.

The Seagulls got the best of the Saints in the reverse fixture, scoring a late equalize deep into stoppage time to secure the draw.

The hosts are fresh off a wild few weeks that saw them pull off consecutive upsets of Arsenal (2-1) and Tottenham (1-0) on their schedule. Brighton then traveled north to play Manchester City to a tie for the first half before running out of gas in a 3-0 defeat.

The Seagulls will now try to establish themselves as a front runner to finish in the top half of the EPL table. A win here would move them into ninth place with five matches to go.

The Saints have been on a bit of a slide, with the lone exception being their win against Arsenal last time out. They have won and drawn once each in their last eight matches, plus they're on just three days rest after a 2-0 loss at Burnley.

Brighton Profitable Side as Underdog Bet

Brighton has been an excellent underdog this season, taking points off Arsenal twice, Chelsea twice, Tottenham, Liverpool and West Ham. The Seagulls' defensive ability to prevent big scoring chances makes them tough to break down, which is a major reason why they have conceded the third-fewest big scoring chances in the league.

They have a ton of excellent, technical players with the ball at their feet and don't get easily overwhelmed by teams who attempt to press them. This is a main reason why Brighton able to neutralize the higher pressing of teams that swarm to possess the ball. Brighton ranks fourth in playing through pressure in the English top flight.

The biggest question has come when the Seagulls are favored and being asked to break down a lower block with incisive attacking play. They have once again — much like last year — run well below their xG tally with 29 goals from 35.3 xG overall.

Southampton has a major defensive weakness in conceding big scoring chances, but Brighton isn't really the team that's going to take advantage of that given it ranks 17th in big scoring chances created. The attack hasn't been as potent at producing shots and cutbacks from the end line this season.

We saw against Arsenal how this created two good chances and goals, but these opportunities have been difficult to create, making it hard to trust.

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Southampton Fading Down EPL Stretch

Southampton went through a similar pattern to its season last year, with an excellent middle portion that ended with the club running out of gas. The Saints' showing on the road against Burnley was far from impressive, as they conceded 1.5 xGA and most of their attacking chances came from set pieces.

Brighton is one of the best defensive set-piece teams in the league, and no team gets a higher percentage of chances from set pieces than the Saints.

If the Seagulls are able to somewhat neutralize the potency of James Ward-Prowse from dead-ball situations, there's not much to like for Southampton. The Saints were the better side in the first meeting, but Southampton relies on creating chaos and high turnovers to produce chances.

That's quite hard to do against Brighton, which plays through pressure well thanks to manager Graham Potter's tactical acumen, plus the ball carrying and passing ability of the host side.

BJ Cunningham’s EPL Projections

Betting Analysis & Pick

The pace of this game will go a long way toward determining who's in control. Southampton will want as many high turnovers forced as possible, trying to limit possession length. The Saints will also want to disrupt the Seagulls' ball-progression patterns and focus on speeding them into mistakes. Brighton is vulnerable in transition, which is where I expect Southampton to have an edge.

However, if Brighton is given enough time and space, the edge favors the technical quality of the host to break open the opposition's defense enough to produce the 1-2 big scoring chances needed to win this match.

My projection for the contest puts the Seagulls at +100 on the moneyline, and I'm willing to take them at +110 odds or better to win outright. Although I'm not one to look to play Brighton as the favorite, it's the better side.

Pick: Brighton ML (+110 or better)