MLS Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets: Los Angeles FC vs. Minnesota United Betting Preview (May 1)

LAFC vs. Minnesota Odds

Los Angeles Football Club looks to move back into the top spot in the Western Conference table Sunday when it welcomes Minnesota United to Banc of California Stadium for their Major League Soccer match.

The host side has won six of eight games to open its first season under manager Steve Cherundolo. Last week's win might have been its most impressive, when it rallied to a 2-1 victory at FC Cincinnati.

Minnesota has won back-to-back home contests before its first trip to the West Coast this season. Most recently, the Loons wore down resilient — but not particularly threatening — Chicago in a 3-0 triumph.

These teams drew in their two meetings last season, with scores of 2-2 in Los Angeles and 1-1 in Minnesota.

Vela Finds Old, Dominant Game for LAFC

Any concerns that Carlos Vela's uncertain contract situation would negatively impact his play have been categorically dismissed.

The 2019 MLS Most Valuable Player has started and captained the team in every game so far for Cherundolo in his most consistent run since that historic individual season.

He hasn't added to his team-leading total of four goals in April. However, he provided an excellent assist to Danny Musovski, who still had a lot to do to hammer his match winner past Roman Celentano in Cincinnati.

Yet, despite Vela's heroics, this is a more balanced LAFC squad than previous iterations that relied too much on the Mexican star. That has shown up on the scoresheet, where five players have multiple goals and 12 have found the net at least once. And it also surfaces in the advanced metrics, where LAFC has led opponents in expected goals in all eight of its league fixtures.

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Minnesota Getting Solid Play from Lod

The Loons still have Adrien Hunou, plus they brought back Luis Amarilla to try and bolster their leading line in front of playmaker Emanuel Reynoso.

Yet, it's Finnish international Robin Lod, who continues to be Minnesota's most consistent scorer. He pulled off one of the better goals of his career to see off Chicago last week, slaloming past two defenders before finishing low to the corner beyond goalkeeper Gabriel Slonina.

Reynoso also had one of his most productive games of 2022 with a goal and an assist against the Fire, but he hasn't contributed to a goal away from home for Minnesota, which has played far more cagey affairs on the road so far.

That might be harder to do now, though. Holding midfielder Wil Trapp is serving a yellow-card suspension. And fullbacks Hasani Dotson and Romain Metanire are both hurt, with the former lost for the season.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

The Black and Gold have played some artistic football at home, while the Loons have tried to keep things close to the vest away.

That said, I suspect the former style will win out.

Part of it is Minnesota's injuries: the idea of facing an in-form Vela without either of your starting fullbacks would frighten most MLS managers. And part of it is an examination of the Loons' away schedule: Philadelphia and the New York Red Bulls are teams who tend to play lower-scoring matches at home.

This version of LAFC is also the most consistent team in MLS so far, and I'm not sure why it would overlook a Minnesota side it hasn't beaten in its last five chances. So, I see the home side prevailing in this spot.

However, the visitors will probably be forced into a more attacking posture by conceding. They have enough talent to find a goal here, even if it maybe comes after LAFC have a comfortable lead.

The Black-and-Gold have won despite conceding in half of their eight matches in 2022, and in half of their four games at home. I expect the trend continues, which is why I'm backing a Single Game Parlay pairing LAFC to win on the moneyline with Both Teams To Score (Yes) at +185 odds and an implied 35.1% probability as my top pick.

Pick: Single Game Parlay: LAFC to Win & Both Teams to Score — Yes (+185)