Serie A Updated Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Best Bets, Featuring Wagers From Fiorentina & Napoli Matches

What a start it was in the Italian top flight!

Inter Milan needed a last-minute goal to sneak past newcomers Lecce. Napoli absolutely fleeced Verona in a 5-2 rout, while reigning champion AC Milan and its revamped attack drilled four past Udinese to get its campaign off to a roaring start.

Now, the second week of matches is upon us and we're back with a trio of plays. Without further hesitation, let's dive into the selections.

Serie A Best Bets

Inter Milan vs. Spezia

Laying the goals didn't work out last week with Inter Milan, but a return to San Siro Stadium should change the result.

Last season against the bottom-half at home, manager Simone Inzaghi's side was utterly dominant. In 10 fixtures, the Nerazzurri were 9-1-0 (W-L-D), but won all 10 matches on expected goals. In their nine victories, five came by at least three goals, while all but one came by at least two tallies.

Inter was largely led by its attack in those fixtures in order to cover the high spreads. It created at least two xG in all but one contest and generated 2.99 xG per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.

Lastly, Inter posted a +2.32 xGDiff/90 minutes in those outings and kept all but two opponents under one xG in the process.

By The Numbers

• +4 — Inter Milan's expected goal differential versus Spezia last season.
• 2.65 — Inter Milan's xG when playing Spezia last campaign.

Hennion's Pick: Inter Milan -2.5 (+120)

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Empoli vs. Fiorentina

Save for a 1-0 Fiorentina win last April, these fixtures have proven completely chaotic.

In the three prior matches, Fiorentina and Empoli combined to average 3.46 xG per match and saw two of three games clear a 2.5-goal total with both teams scoring in two of three meetings.

If there's a unit bettors can count on, it should be the Empoli defense. Last season, it allowed the second-most xG in the league and almost two xG/90 minutes against Fiorentina, per fbref.com.

However, it simultaneously notched at least one xG in the last two home fixtures against Fiorentina, which had a midweek Europa Conference League playoff and will be playing on short rest.

Based on those outputs, I'll back a Same Game Parlay pairing Both Teams To Score (Yes) with the total clearing 2.5 goals at anything better than -130 odds.

By The Numbers

• 40.2 — Home xGA allowed by Empoli last season.
• 6th — Ranking for Fiorentina in the xG table last campaign.

Hennion's Pick: Single Game Parlay — Both Teams to Score (Yes) & Total Over 2.5 Goals (-125)

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Napoli vs. Monza

As referenced earlier, the Napoli attack flexed its muscle last week. That said, I expect that to continue against a sub-par Monza defense.

Last season against bottom-half sides, the Napoli attack proved remarkably consistent. In 10 fixtures, it generated at least 1.5 xG in all but one match and at least two xG in six of 10 contests.

Only a week ago, Monza conceded 2.6 xG to Torino. A good offense? Yes. An offense on the level of Napoli's? Unlikely.

Combine that with the fact Napoli generated 2.3 xG away from home against a defense I rate as superior to Monza's over the course of a season and I believe the visitors could be in for a long day on the pitch.

Play Napoli's team total at +110 or better.

By The Numbers

• 4 — Big scoring chances for Napoli on debut this season.
• 6 — Big scoring chances against for Monza in its match with Torino to kick off its Serie A campaign.

Hennion's Pick: Napoli — Team Total Over 2.5 Goals (+125)