Sunday Soccer Odds, Expert Picks: Best Bets For Celta Vigo vs. Real Betis & Schalke vs. Augsburg (October 2)

While Sunday is NFL day in America, not a single play will be run before 1 p.m. ET, meaning you have plenty of time to examine the soccer odds board and get your bets in on a different kind of football.

Below, Nick Hennion and Anthony Dabbundo have identified their top bets to make, with a catch: Each game kicks off at 11:30 a.m. ET or earlier, meaning they will also end right around when the NFL kicks off.

Read on to see how our staff is playing the early morning slate of European soccer on Sunday.

Our 2 Early Sunday Best Bets

Celta Vigo vs. Real Betis

Dabbundo: Real Betis have won five and lost one of their first six games in La Liga this season, but they’ve been incredibly fortunate from a variance point of view.

Their goal difference is just +6 and the expected goal (xG) difference is +0.7 for the entire season to date. Most of the good fortune has come from opponents missing chances against them. Betis have conceded four league goals from 8.2 xGA and defensive regression is coming for them in a big way.

They go on the road on Sunday to take on Celta Vigo, who have struggled to begin the 2022-23 La Liga season. Vigo has struggled to finish their chances with three goals from 5.3 xGF and they have played a difficult schedule that included 4-1 losses to Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid that were much closer if you look at the final box score.

Throw in a red card early against Valencia before the international break and the market has gotten too sour on Vigo here at home.

Real Betis are the slightly better team, but when you include home field advantage for Celta Vigo, Vigo should be a bigger home favorite here.

Pick: Celta Vigo PK (-130) 

Schalke vs. Augsburg

Hennion: Augsburg are ahead in the table, but I believe Schalke are the better team.

Sunday’s hosts are a prime positive regression candidate entering this matchup, particularly based on their performances at home. In those three matches, Schalke have a -3 goal differential against a +1 big scoring chances differential while posting a  +0.9 xGDiff.

Plus, in three home fixtures against Bochum, Union Berlin and Borussia Monchengladbach, Schalke have yet to generate fewer than 1.3 xG and have created 1.53 xG/90, per fbref.com.

On the flip-side, Augsburg have struggled immensely in terms of their defensive record away from home. Those three matches have seen them concede only two goals on nearly six xG and a whopping 11 big scoring chances. Just in two road matches against Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen, Augsburg have surrendered five big scoring chances and 3.14 xG.

For those reasons, back Schalke as short home favorites up to -105.

Pick:Schalke ML +120