BMW Championship Betting Guide: Is Jordan Spieth All the Way Back?
Dennis Schneidler, USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jordan Spieth
- Dustin Johnson (+900) is the betting favorite to win the BMW Championship at Aronimink Golf Club.
- Jordan Spieth (+2200) and Rickie Fowler (+3800) are good value bets along with Francesco Molinari (+4000).
- Further down the board, longshots Tyrrell Hatton (+6000), Rafa Cabrera-Bello (+8000) and Abraham Ancer (+15000) are all in good form.
The FedEx Cup Playoffs have quickly turned into the DeChambeau show.
A week after cashing at +8000 in the Northern Trust, Bryson DeChambeau backed it up with a win at +4500 in the Dell Technologies Championship.
Now the challenge is seeing if we can find anyone to beat him this week.
The PGA Tour’s third playoff stop heads to an unfamiliar venue at Aronimink Golf Club in the Philadelphia area.
We’ve seen this course used only twice on tour in the last 50 years for the 2010 and 2011 AT&T National won by Justin Rose and Nick Watney. In those two years, it played as a 7,237-yard par 70.
In both of those tournaments, it was the cream of the field that “rose” to the top. Rose was just entering his prime and picked up his second win within a month at the 2010 event. Meanwhile, Watney was enjoying the best season of his career in 2011, when he won twice, recorded 10 top-10s and finished fourth in strokes gained: total.
Both Rose and Watney were gaining strokes in every aspect of the game that season, which makes me think that Aronimink will be a course that tests all facets of a player’s ability and exploit any weakness. With just two par-5s, it’s not as likely to cater to bombers as much as someone who has a solid all-around game.
Dustin Johnson opened as the favorite again at +900. He seems to be cemented in that spot, but there is a good argument to be had that it should be Justin Rose this week. He’s next in line at +1200 and is coming off a second-place finish over Labor Day Weekend. Couple that with a previous win here and Rose would be of far more interest to me than DJ right now.
Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas are next in line at +1400 and then it’s the hottest player on Tour, Bryson DeChambeau at +1600. I didn’t think I’d ever see DeChambeau ahead of the likes of Rory McIlroy or Jordan Spieth, but we’ve reached that point with the bookmakers. They’re done giving those mid-tier prices for DeChambeau at least for now.
Speaking of Spieth, he’s the player I’m targeting at +2200. I’m going to be patient with it and see if it gets to +2500 somewhere, but his game is really close to being all the way back.
The putting woes are a thing of the past. He hasn’t lost strokes on the green since playing Colonial at the end of May.
Last week was also the first time since February he gained strokes in all four areas. As I mentioned earlier, this course seems to favor those who are clicking with everything, and Spieth seems to have plugged many of the holes that we’re causing him to leak strokes throughout the summer.
I don’t bet Rickie Fowler very often. But I will gamble this week.
Most sites have Fowler in the +2500 range, but Bookmaker posted +3800 on Tuesday, and that’s enough to get me to bite (Update: Fowler is down to +3471 on Bookmaker at the time of writing).
He’s coming back from an oblique injury, but as our own Jason Sobel tweeted out, that rest gave him a chance to recover, and he’s swinging pain free again. Rickie is one of the best from tee to green and usually putts pretty well. He just doesn’t win at the rate his stats suggest he should. But at nearly 40-1, I’ll take a flyer in a 70-person field. However, if it dips below +3300, I’d steer clear.
Bookmaker also had some value on another well-rested star in Francesco Molinari. The British Open champ took last week off and comes into this week at +4000. Molinari may be on the tail end of his hot streak that culminated in his first major title, but I’ve hit him twice this summer and I’ll take another shot here. The Italian is at his best on shorter tracks where he can just put the ball in play off the tee and let his irons do the work.
To close out this area, I’m back two more Europeans. First up is Tyrrell Hatton at +6000. Hatton was in contention early in the final round Monday before DeChambeau ran away from the pack.
Hatton has a game similar to Molinari’s off the tee where they aren’t the longest but usually find the fairway. His irons aren’t on Molinari’s level, but Hatton makes up for it by putting better. He’s been in good form in these playoffs with a couple top-20s. It’s just a matter of stringing four rounds together.
I’m also going with Rafa Cabrera-Bello at +8000. RCB was also in the mix with DeChambeau down the stretch before some late bogeys ended his chances.
The Spaniard finds out Wednesday if he makes the Ryder Cup team, and reports seem to suggest that he may be on the outside looking in. That would give the golfer who is in good form a little extra motivation if he’s left off the European squad.
In this range, I’m going back to where I had some success last week with Abraham Ancer. We got a nice top-20 performance out of him where he was the third-round leader and had as good of chance as anyone at the start of the back nine to take down the title.
I like him on the shorter courses that demand a little more accuracy and aren’t as easy to simply overpower. Ancer was a fit for me last week, but I backed off an actual win bet because his par-5 scoring wasn’t good enough for me.
This week, I’m backing him at 150-1. We have one fewer par-5 this week, and considering how well he played, he’s worth a second look this time around.
Basically this whole card is backing guys who are in form. The playoff events tend to go to guys riding hot streaks. We’ve seen that with DeChambeau already taking the first two.
Guys rarely just come out of nowhere to win because these fields are simply too good. There’s usually some sign, so I’m making sure to back players who have shown some signs that they’re close to winning in recent weeks.
BMW Championship Card
Jordan Spieth +2200
Rickie Fowler +3800
Francesco Molinari +4000
Rafa Cabrera-Bello +8000
Abraham Ancer +15000